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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Armadale weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 14° in Armadale today. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 15°, with a 31% chance of rain.

14°10°
15°
17°
18°13°
15°
15°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±4°
Met OfficeUKMO model
15°
Light rain
Today 15°·Low 11°·Rain -
EuropeanECMWF
14°
Light drizzle
Today 14°·Low 11°·Rain 100%
AmericanNOAA GFS
14°
Light drizzle
Today 14°·Low 10°·Rain 100%
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Armadale weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for Dumfries, Galloway, Lothian & Borders

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for Dumfries, Galloway, Lothian & Borders…

Armadale weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Armadale swings 16°C across the year, from 17°C highs in June to 1°C lows in January, and December is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1257 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 1 day a year at 25°C or above, 48 frost nights, and rain on 195 days.

Warmest month
June
17°C average high
Coldest month
January
1°C average low
Wettest month
December
1257 mm a year
Comfortable
3 months
June, July and August
Residents
13,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
Met Office
84/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
1 day
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
48 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
195 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Armadale’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Armadale and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Armadale hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Armadale 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
14° 10°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
15°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
17°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
18° 13°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
15°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
15°
±4°
Fri
Heavy drizzle
16°
±3°
Sat
Partly cloudy
12°
±4°
Sun
Drizzle
14°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
15° 10°
±4°
Tue
Light drizzle
15°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
18° 11°
±5°
Thu
Light drizzle
18° 10°
±4°
Fri
Drizzle
14°
±3°

Armadale, Scotland is at its warmest in Jun (average highs near 17°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 1°C), with roughly 1257 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Armadale right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Armadale climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
10°
May
15°
Jun
17°
Jul
16°
10°
Aug
17°
11°
Sep
15°
Oct
11°
Nov
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Armadale?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
Met Office logo
Met Office ★ Best
84
/100rank #1
89±0.6°C96±1.2 mph7184% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
European logo
European
84
/100rank #2
86±0.8°C94±1.9 mph7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
83
/100rank #3
82±1.0°C94±1.8 mph7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1887 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°14° to 15°models agree100% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±1°14° to 15°±12%19% to 31% chance
Mon±2°16° to 18°±21%32% to 53% chance
Tue±2°17° to 18°±7%28% to 35% chance
Wed±1°14° to 15°±20%29% to 49% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Armadale

today, local time
Sunrise
06:54
Sunset
19:21
Daylight
12h 27m

Common questions

What's the weather in Armadale today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Armadale today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Armadale today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Armadale and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Armadale?
Over the last 30 days, the Met Office model has been the most accurate for Armadale (CheckWeather Score 84/100), ahead of the European at 84. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Armadale?
June is typically the warmest month in Armadale, with average highs around 17°C.
How cold does Armadale get?
The coldest month in Armadale is January, when overnight lows average about 1°C.
How much rain does Armadale get?
Armadale sees roughly 1257 mm of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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