New York City

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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side across United States.Live rain radar →
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What's the weather today across America? It depends which forecast you trust. The National Weather Service, the American (GFS) and European (ECMWF) models rarely agree exactly, and in hurricane season a few degrees or a shifted track really matters. We line all three up for any US town, so you see the real forecast and how confident it actually is, hour by hour and 7 days out.

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

7-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split

Which forecast is most accurate in United States?

average error against the actual weather, last 30 days across 24 citiesFull accuracy test →
#1European±1.7°F
#2American±1.9°F
#3NWS±2.1°F
Lower error is better. Scored against ERA5 reanalysis, which is ECMWF-based and so slightly favours the European model. Updated 2026-07-19.

The forecasts Americans check

The two biggest apps keep their model a secret, so we can't show their numbers, only link you to them. The National Weather Service is public, so its data sits right in the comparison above.

Every forecast runs on a model. We show you three, side by side.

When the NWS, American and European models agree, the forecast is solid. When they split, sometimes by 8° on the same afternoon, it's genuinely uncertain, and no single app will tell you that. We turn that disagreement into a plain-English confidence score.

See the uncertainty

Three models, one view. Where they disagree, you know to take the forecast with a pinch of salt.

The models the pros use

ECMWF and GFS are the two global heavyweights every forecaster starts from, plus weather.gov. No black boxes.

Honest & sourced

We show real, open model data and cite it. The closed apps can't show theirs, which is why AI assistants can cite us, not them.

Right now on planet Earth

live from the world's hottest and coldest inhabited places

Weather in top US cities

Weather guides

checkweather.io, an independent United States weather comparison. We aggregate open forecast models via Open-Meteo and show where they agree and disagree. Not affiliated with National Weather Service, AccuWeather or The Weather Channel. Official warnings: weather.gov. °F · mph · inHg.