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CheckWeather UKCaerleon

Caerleon weather

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Caerleon weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for Wales

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for Wales…

Caerleon weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Caerleon swings 18°C across the year, from 20°C highs in June to 2°C lows in January, and September is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1377 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 10 days a year at 25°C or above, 1 of them at 30°C or above, 28 frost nights, and rain on 156 days.

Warmest month
June
20°C average high
Coldest month
January
2°C average low
Wettest month
September
1377 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
8,061
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
91/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
10 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
28 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
156 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Caerleon’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Caerleon and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Caerleon hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Caerleon 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split

Caerleon, Wales is at its warmest in Jun (average highs near 20°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 2°C), with roughly 1377 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Caerleon right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Caerleon climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
10°
Mar
10°
Apr
12°
May
17°
Jun
20°
11°
Jul
19°
12°
Aug
20°
12°
Sep
19°
12°
Oct
15°
Nov
10°
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Caerleon?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
91
/100rank #1
94±0.3°C97±1.0 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
80
/100rank #2
83±0.9°C88±3.6 mph7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
Met Office logo
Met Office
76
/100rank #3
83±0.9°C96±1.2 mph5374% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1887 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Common questions

What's the weather in Caerleon today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Caerleon today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Caerleon today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Caerleon and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Caerleon?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Caerleon (CheckWeather Score 91/100), ahead of the American at 80. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Caerleon?
June is typically the warmest month in Caerleon, with average highs around 20°C.
How cold does Caerleon get?
The coldest month in Caerleon is January, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Caerleon get?
Caerleon sees roughly 1377 mm of precipitation a year, with September usually the wettest month.

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