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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Calne weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 19° in Calne today. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 19°, with a 21% chance of rain.

19°15°
19°11°
22°
23°12°
20°11°
21°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±3°Tuesdaysplit ±3°Wednesdaysplit ±5°Thursdaysplit ±6°
Met OfficeUKMO model
19°
Drizzle
Today 19°·Low 16°·Rain -
EuropeanECMWF
20°
Light drizzle
Today 20°·Low 15°·Rain 70%
AmericanNOAA GFS
19°
Light drizzle
Today 19°·Low 14°·Rain 29%
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Calne weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for West Midlands

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for West Midlands…

Calne weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Calne swings 19°C across the year, from 21°C highs in August to 2°C lows in January, and September is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1085 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 13 days a year at 25°C or above, 1 of them at 30°C or above, 31 frost nights, and rain on 146 days.

Warmest month
August
21°C average high
Coldest month
January
2°C average low
Wettest month
September
1085 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
17,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
95/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
13 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
31 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
146 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Calne’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Calne and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Calne hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Calne 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
19° 15°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
19° 11°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
22°
±3°
Tue
Cloudy
23° 12°
±3°
Wed
Cloudy
20° 11°
±5°
Thu
Cloudy
21°
±6°
Fri
Light drizzle
21° 12°
±6°
Sat
Drizzle
19° 12°
±8°
Sun
Cloudy
21° 12°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
24° 12°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
22° 12°
±4°
Wed
Light drizzle
23° 12°
±10°
Thu
Light drizzle
20° 13°
±2°
Fri
Drizzle
18° 13°
±2°

Calne, England is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 21°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 2°C), with roughly 1085 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Calne right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Calne climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
10°
Mar
10°
Apr
12°
May
17°
Jun
20°
11°
Jul
20°
12°
Aug
21°
12°
Sep
19°
12°
Oct
15°
Nov
10°
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Calne?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
95
/100rank #1
94±0.3°C97±0.8 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
85
/100rank #2
86±0.8°C96±1.1 mph7687% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
84
/100rank #3
80±1.1°C93±2.2 mph8290% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1887 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°19° to 20°±41%29% to 70% chance
Tomorrowmodels agree19° to 19°±9%12% to 21% chance
Mon±3°20° to 23°±2%0% to 2% chance
Tue±3°22° to 25°±2%0% to 2% chance
Wed±5°18° to 23°±13%3% to 16% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Calne

today, local time
Sunrise
06:49
Sunset
19:13
Daylight
12h 24m

Common questions

What's the weather in Calne today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Calne today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Calne today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Calne and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Calne?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Calne (CheckWeather Score 95/100), ahead of the Met Office at 85. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Calne?
August is typically the warmest month in Calne, with average highs around 21°C.
How cold does Calne get?
The coldest month in Calne is January, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Calne get?
Calne sees roughly 1085 mm of precipitation a year, with September usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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