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CheckWeather UKChelmsley Wood
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 0°C

Chelmsley Wood weather

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Light drizzle,cooler tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 22° in Chelmsley Wood today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 18°, with a 6% chance of rain.

22°16°
18°12°
22°10°
22°15°
18°12°
20°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±4°Tuesdaysplit ±4°Wednesdaysplit ±4°Thursdaysplit ±6°
Met OfficeUKMO model
22°
Light drizzle
Today 22°·Low 16°·Rain -
EuropeanECMWF
22°
Light drizzle
Today 22°·Low 15°·Rain 61%
AmericanNOAA GFS
21°
Light drizzle
Today 21°·Low 16°·Rain 55%
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Chelmsley Wood weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for West Midlands

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Chelmsley Wood weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Chelmsley Wood swings 18°C across the year, from 20°C highs in June to 2°C lows in January, and September is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 973 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 13 days a year at 25°C or above, 1 of them at 30°C or above, 30 frost nights, and rain on 142 days.

Warmest month
June
20°C average high
Coldest month
January
2°C average low
Wettest month
September
973 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
13,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
96/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
13 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
30 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
142 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Chelmsley Wood’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Chelmsley Wood and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Chelmsley Wood hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Chelmsley Wood 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
22° 16°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
18° 12°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
22° 10°
±4°
Tue
Cloudy
22° 15°
±4°
Wed
Cloudy
18° 12°
±4°
Thu
Cloudy
20°
±6°
Fri
Cloudy
21° 13°
±7°
Sat
Cloudy
19° 13°
±7°
Sun
Cloudy
21° 12°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
25° 13°
±5°
Tue
Light drizzle
22° 14°
±2°
Wed
Cloudy
24° 12°
±9°
Thu
Light drizzle
21° 14°
models agree
Fri
Drizzle
18° 14°
models agree

Chelmsley Wood, England is at its warmest in Jun (average highs near 20°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 2°C), with roughly 973 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Chelmsley Wood right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Chelmsley Wood climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
10°
Mar
10°
Apr
12°
May
17°
Jun
20°
11°
Jul
20°
12°
Aug
20°
12°
Sep
19°
11°
Oct
15°
Nov
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Chelmsley Wood?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
96
/100rank #1
96±0.2°C97±0.9 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
93
/100rank #2
88±0.7°C97±0.9 mph9597% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
90
/100rank #3
81±1.1°C97±1.1 mph9597% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1887 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Todaymodels agree21° to 22°±6%55% to 61% chance
Tomorrow±1°17° to 19°±6%0% to 6% chance
Mon±4°20° to 24°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±4°21° to 24°±1%2% to 3% chance
Wed±4°17° to 20°±19%7% to 26% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Chelmsley Wood

today, local time
Sunrise
06:47
Sunset
19:12
Daylight
12h 25m

Common questions

What's the weather in Chelmsley Wood today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Chelmsley Wood today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Chelmsley Wood today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Chelmsley Wood and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Chelmsley Wood?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Chelmsley Wood (CheckWeather Score 96/100), ahead of the Met Office at 93. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Chelmsley Wood?
June is typically the warmest month in Chelmsley Wood, with average highs around 20°C.
How cold does Chelmsley Wood get?
The coldest month in Chelmsley Wood is January, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Chelmsley Wood get?
Chelmsley Wood sees roughly 973 mm of precipitation a year, with September usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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