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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Chorleywood weather

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Light drizzle,much the same tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 20° in Chorleywood today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 18°, with a 20% chance of rain.

20°15°
18°11°
21°
23°12°
21°12°
20°10°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±2°Tuesdaysplit ±3°Wednesdaysplit ±5°Thursdaysplit ±6°
Met OfficeUKMO model
21°
Light drizzle
Today 21°·Low 16°·Rain -
EuropeanECMWF
20°
Light drizzle
Today 20°·Low 16°·Rain 39%
AmericanNOAA GFS
20°
Light drizzle
Today 20°·Low 15°·Rain 20%
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Chorleywood weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for London & South East England

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for London & South East England…

Chorleywood weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Chorleywood swings 19°C across the year, from 21°C highs in June to 2°C lows in January, and September is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 988 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 18 days a year at 25°C or above, 2 of them at 30°C or above, 29 frost nights, and rain on 138 days.

Warmest month
June
21°C average high
Coldest month
January
2°C average low
Wettest month
September
988 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
12,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
96/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
18 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
29 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
138 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Chorleywood’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Chorleywood and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Chorleywood hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Chorleywood 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
20° 15°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
18° 11°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
21°
±2°
Tue
Clear
23° 12°
±3°
Wed
Cloudy
21° 12°
±5°
Thu
Cloudy
20° 10°
±6°
Fri
Cloudy
21° 13°
±3°
Sat
Drizzle
19° 12°
±7°
Sun
Cloudy
20° 12°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
25° 13°
±3°
Tue
Heavy drizzle
22° 12°
±5°
Wed
Drizzle
24° 12°
±8°
Thu
Cloudy
20° 13°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
19° 14°
±3°

Chorleywood, England is at its warmest in Jun (average highs near 21°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 2°C), with roughly 988 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Chorleywood right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Chorleywood climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
10°
Mar
11°
Apr
13°
May
17°
Jun
21°
11°
Jul
21°
13°
Aug
21°
13°
Sep
20°
12°
Oct
15°
Nov
10°
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Chorleywood?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
96
/100rank #1
95±0.3°C97±0.9 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
86
/100rank #2
92±0.5°C96±1.2 mph7184% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
78
/100rank #3
86±0.8°C92±2.5 mph5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1887 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°20° to 21°±19%20% to 39% chance
Tomorrow±1°18° to 19°±14%6% to 20% chance
Mon±2°20° to 22°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±3°22° to 24°models agree0% to 0% chance
Wed±5°18° to 23°±15%3% to 18% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Chorleywood

today, local time
Sunrise
06:43
Sunset
19:07
Daylight
12h 24m

Common questions

What's the weather in Chorleywood today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Chorleywood today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Chorleywood today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Chorleywood and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Chorleywood?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Chorleywood (CheckWeather Score 96/100), ahead of the Met Office at 86. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Chorleywood?
June is typically the warmest month in Chorleywood, with average highs around 21°C.
How cold does Chorleywood get?
The coldest month in Chorleywood is January, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Chorleywood get?
Chorleywood sees roughly 988 mm of precipitation a year, with September usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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