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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Dunstable weather

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Light drizzle,much the same tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 20° in Dunstable today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 18°, with a 17% chance of rain.

20°15°
18°11°
21°
23°13°
21°13°
20°10°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±2°Wednesdaysplit ±5°Thursdaysplit ±5°
Met OfficeUKMO model
20°
Drizzle
Today 20°·Low 16°·Rain -
EuropeanECMWF
21°
Light drizzle
Today 21°·Low 15°·Rain 44%
AmericanNOAA GFS
19°
Light drizzle
Today 19°·Low 15°·Rain 17%
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Dunstable weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for London & South East England

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for London & South East England…

Dunstable weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Dunstable swings 20°C across the year, from 21°C highs in August to 1°C lows in January, and September is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 873 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 16 days a year at 25°C or above, 3 of them at 30°C or above, 33 frost nights, and rain on 136 days.

Warmest month
August
21°C average high
Coldest month
January
1°C average low
Wettest month
September
873 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
52,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
95/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
16 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
33 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
136 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Dunstable’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Dunstable and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Dunstable hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Dunstable 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
20° 15°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
18° 11°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
21°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
23° 13°
±2°
Wed
Cloudy
21° 13°
±5°
Thu
Cloudy
20° 10°
±5°
Fri
Light drizzle
21° 12°
±4°
Sat
Drizzle
19° 12°
±7°
Sun
Cloudy
20° 12°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
25° 12°
±3°
Tue
Drizzle
22° 12°
±4°
Wed
Drizzle
24° 12°
±8°
Thu
Cloudy
19° 13°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
19° 13°
±3°

Dunstable, England is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 21°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 1°C), with roughly 873 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Dunstable right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Dunstable climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
10°
Mar
10°
Apr
12°
May
17°
Jun
20°
11°
Jul
20°
12°
Aug
21°
13°
Sep
20°
12°
Oct
15°
Nov
10°
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Dunstable?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
95
/100rank #1
94±0.3°C97±1.0 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
83
/100rank #2
95±0.3°C97±0.9 mph5877% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
73
/100rank #3
89±0.6°C90±3.1 mph4268% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1887 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°19° to 21°±27%17% to 44% chance
Tomorrowmodels agree18° to 18°±13%4% to 17% chance
Mon±2°20° to 22°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±2°22° to 24°±2%0% to 2% chance
Wed±5°18° to 22°±15%3% to 18% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Dunstable

today, local time
Sunrise
06:43
Sunset
19:07
Daylight
12h 24m

Common questions

What's the weather in Dunstable today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Dunstable today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Dunstable today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Dunstable and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Dunstable?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Dunstable (CheckWeather Score 95/100), ahead of the Met Office at 83. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Dunstable?
August is typically the warmest month in Dunstable, with average highs around 21°C.
How cold does Dunstable get?
The coldest month in Dunstable is January, when overnight lows average about 1°C.
How much rain does Dunstable get?
Dunstable sees roughly 873 mm of precipitation a year, with September usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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