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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 0°C

Durham weather

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Light rain,much the same tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 18° in Durham today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 17°, with a 0% chance of rain.

18°13°
17°11°
21°
21°14°
17°10°
18°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±5°
Met OfficeUKMO model
18°
Light rain
Today 18°·Low 13°·Rain -
EuropeanECMWF
18°
Cloudy
Today 18°·Low 13°·Rain 2%
AmericanNOAA GFS
18°
Light drizzle
Today 18°·Low 13°·Rain 62%
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Durham weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for North East England

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for North East England…

Durham weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Durham swings 16°C across the year, from 19°C highs in July to 3°C lows in January, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1021 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 5 days a year at 25°C or above, 27 frost nights, and rain on 158 days.

Warmest month
July
19°C average high
Coldest month
January
3°C average low
Wettest month
July
1021 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, August and September
Residents
48,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
93/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
5 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
27 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
158 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Durham’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Durham and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Durham hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Durham 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light rain
18° 13°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
17° 11°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
21°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
21° 14°
models agree
Wed
Heavy drizzle
17° 10°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
18°
±5°
Fri
Light drizzle
20° 11°
±7°
Sat
Cloudy
18° 10°
±3°
Sun
Cloudy
17°
±3°
Mon
Cloudy
21° 10°
±3°
Tue
Cloudy
20° 14°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
23° 11°
±7°
Thu
Cloudy
20° 11°
models agree
Fri
Drizzle
18° 12°
±5°

Durham, England is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 19°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 3°C), with roughly 1021 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Durham right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Durham climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
11°
May
16°
Jun
18°
10°
Jul
19°
12°
Aug
19°
12°
Sep
17°
11°
Oct
14°
Nov
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Durham?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
95±0.3°C97±0.8 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
79
/100rank #2
91±0.5°C96±1.2 mph5374% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
79
/100rank #3
87±0.7°C96±1.3 mph5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1887 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Todaymodels agree18° to 18°±60%2% to 62% chance
Tomorrowmodels agree17° to 18°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±2°20° to 21°±3%16% to 19% chance
Tue±2°20° to 22°±3%3% to 6% chance
Wed±2°16° to 18°±24%27% to 51% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Durham

today, local time
Sunrise
06:46
Sunset
19:12
Daylight
12h 26m

Common questions

What's the weather in Durham today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Durham today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Durham today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Durham and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Durham?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Durham (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the Met Office at 79. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Durham?
July is typically the warmest month in Durham, with average highs around 19°C.
How cold does Durham get?
The coldest month in Durham is January, when overnight lows average about 3°C.
How much rain does Durham get?
Durham sees roughly 1021 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More UK weather