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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Kirkcaldy weather

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Light drizzle,much the same tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 16° in Kirkcaldy today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 16°, with a 4% chance of rain.

16°12°
16°10°
18°
19°14°
15°
16°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±2°Thursdaysplit ±3°
Met OfficeUKMO model
17°
Light drizzle
Today 17°·Low 12°·Rain -
EuropeanECMWF
15°
Light drizzle
Today 15°·Low 12°·Rain 86%
AmericanNOAA GFS
15°
Light drizzle
Today 15°·Low 11°·Rain 84%
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Kirkcaldy weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for Central, Tayside & Fife

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for Central, Tayside & Fife…

Kirkcaldy weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Kirkcaldy swings 16°C across the year, from 18°C highs in August to 2°C lows in January, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1026 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 1 day a year at 25°C or above, 25 frost nights, and rain on 165 days.

Warmest month
August
18°C average high
Coldest month
January
2°C average low
Wettest month
October
1026 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
June, July, August and September
Residents
50,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
American
90/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
1 day
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
25 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
165 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Kirkcaldy’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Kirkcaldy and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Kirkcaldy hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Kirkcaldy 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
16° 12°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
16° 10°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
18°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
19° 14°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
15°
±2°
Thu
Light drizzle
16°
±3°
Fri
Drizzle
17° 10°
±4°
Sat
Partly cloudy
14°
±3°
Sun
Drizzle
15°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
17° 11°
±3°
Tue
Light drizzle
16° 10°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
18° 11°
±5°
Thu
Light drizzle
18° 10°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
16°
models agree

Kirkcaldy, Scotland is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 18°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 2°C), with roughly 1026 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Kirkcaldy right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Kirkcaldy climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
11°
May
15°
Jun
17°
11°
Jul
17°
12°
Aug
18°
12°
Sep
16°
10°
Oct
13°
Nov
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Kirkcaldy?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
American logo
American ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
87±0.7°C96±1.4 mph8994% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
European logo
European
86
/100rank #2
93±0.4°C94±2.0 mph7184% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
81
/100rank #3
92±0.4°C96±1.1 mph5877% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1887 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°15° to 17°±2%84% to 86% chance
Tomorrowmodels agree16° to 16°±1%3% to 4% chance
Mon±2°17° to 19°±26%23% to 49% chance
Tuemodels agree19° to 20°±3%23% to 26% chance
Wed±2°14° to 16°±13%32% to 45% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Kirkcaldy

today, local time
Sunrise
06:51
Sunset
19:19
Daylight
12h 28m

Common questions

What's the weather in Kirkcaldy today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Kirkcaldy today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Kirkcaldy today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Kirkcaldy and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Kirkcaldy?
Over the last 30 days, the American model has been the most accurate for Kirkcaldy (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the European at 86. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Kirkcaldy?
August is typically the warmest month in Kirkcaldy, with average highs around 18°C.
How cold does Kirkcaldy get?
The coldest month in Kirkcaldy is January, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Kirkcaldy get?
Kirkcaldy sees roughly 1026 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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