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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Leicester weather

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Light drizzle,cooler tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 22° in Leicester today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 17°, with a 6% chance of rain.

22°16°
17°11°
21°10°
23°14°
20°13°
19°10°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±3°Tuesdaysplit ±4°Wednesdaysplit ±5°Thursdaymodels agree
Met OfficeUKMO model
22°
Cloudy
Today 22°·Low 16°·Rain -
EuropeanECMWF
21°
Light drizzle
Today 21°·Low 15°·Rain 63%
AmericanNOAA GFS
21°
Light drizzle
Today 21°·Low 15°·Rain 71%
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Leicester weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for East Midlands

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for East Midlands…

Leicester weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Leicester swings 19°C across the year, from 21°C highs in August to 2°C lows in January, and September is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 913 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 14 days a year at 25°C or above, 1 of them at 30°C or above, 30 frost nights, and rain on 145 days.

Warmest month
August
21°C average high
Coldest month
January
2°C average low
Wettest month
September
913 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
369,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
95/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
14 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
30 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
145 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Leicester’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Leicester and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Leicester in 3D: the weather on the streets, hour by hour

Rain, sun and real shadows drawn on a 3D map of Leicester, 48 hours ahead. Drag the timeline, pick what you are doing or where you are going, and read the verdict for that hour.Full screen ↗

What are you doing?

Where are you going?

Leicester hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

Loading the three models…

Leicester 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
22° 16°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
17° 11°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
21° 10°
±3°
Tue
Cloudy
23° 14°
±4°
Wed
Cloudy
20° 13°
±5°
Thu
Cloudy
19° 10°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
19° 11°
±5°
Sat
Cloudy
19° 11°
±7°
Sun
Cloudy
21° 11°
±3°
Mon
Cloudy
23° 13°
±6°
Tue
Light drizzle
19° 14°
±4°
Wed
Light drizzle
18° 10°
±3°
Thu
Cloudy
20° 13°
models agree
Fri
Drizzle
18° 15°
models agree

Leicester, England. Below we compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Leicester right now and flag exactly where they disagree, then break down Leicester's weather month by month and which forecast model has been most accurate here.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Leicester weather by month

what to expect in Leicester through the year

Here is Leicester's typical weather in each month: the average daytime high and overnight low in °C, how each month feels, and the wettest month marked. Use it to plan any trip to Leicester by season.

Jan
Cold
Feb
10°
Cool
Mar
10°
Cool
Apr
12°
Cool
May
17°
Mild
Jun
20°
11°
Mild
Jul
20°
12°
Mild
Aug
21°
12°
Mild
Sep
19°
11°
Mild
Wettest
Oct
15°
Mild
Nov
Cool
Dec
Cool

What Leicester's weather is like through the year

Leicester runs from warm summers, with August highs near 21°C, to cold winters, when January lows sit around 2°C (a swing of about 19°C across the year). September is usually the wettest month, and Leicester sees roughly 913 mm of precipitation annually.

Best time to visit Leicester

The most comfortable time to visit Leicester is usually May, June, July and August, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest September rain is behind you.

Which forecast is most accurate in Leicester?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
95
/100rank #1
93±0.4°C98±0.7 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
85
/100rank #2
85±0.8°C97±0.9 mph7687% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
78
/100rank #3
80±1.1°C95±1.5 mph6581% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1887 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Bottom line: over the last 30 days the European model has been the most accurate forecast for Leicester, scoring 95/100 on our CheckWeather Score, ahead of the Met Office at 85. See the full UK accuracy scoreboard for exactly how every model is tested.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°21° to 22°±8%63% to 71% chance
Tomorrow±1°17° to 18°±6%0% to 6% chance
Mon±3°20° to 23°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±4°20° to 25°±1%3% to 4% chance
Wed±5°18° to 23°±19%6% to 25% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Leicester

today, local time
Sunrise
06:45
Sunset
19:10
Daylight
12h 25m

Common questions

What's the weather in Leicester today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Leicester today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Leicester today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Leicester and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Leicester?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Leicester (CheckWeather Score 95/100), ahead of the Met Office at 85. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Leicester?
August is typically the warmest month in Leicester, with average highs around 21°C.
How cold does Leicester get?
The coldest month in Leicester is January, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Leicester get?
Leicester sees roughly 913 mm of precipitation a year, with September usually the wettest month.
When is the best time to visit Leicester?
The most comfortable time to visit Leicester is usually May, June, July and August, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest September rain is behind you.
Does it snow in Leicester?
Rarely - Leicester very seldom sees overnight lows drop below freezing, so lasting snow is unusual.

Nearby

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