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CheckWeather UKStoke Gifford
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Stoke Gifford weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 18° in Stoke Gifford today. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 19°, with a 82% chance of rain.

18°12°
19°15°
19°13°
21°13°
22°14°
21°12°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaymodels agreeMondaysplit ±3°Tuesdaysplit ±4°Wednesdaysplit ±6°
Met OfficeUKMO model
18°
Light drizzle
Today 18°·Low 12°·Rain -
EuropeanECMWF
17°
Light drizzle
Today 17°·Low 12°·Rain 25%
AmericanNOAA GFS
17°
Cloudy
Today 17°·Low 12°·Rain 1%
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Stoke Gifford weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for South West England

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Stoke Gifford weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Stoke Gifford swings 17°C across the year, from 20°C highs in June to 3°C lows in January, and September is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1203 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 12 days a year at 25°C or above, 1 of them at 30°C or above, 22 frost nights, and rain on 157 days.

Warmest month
June
20°C average high
Coldest month
January
3°C average low
Wettest month
September
1203 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
14,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
95/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
12 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
22 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
157 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Stoke Gifford’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Stoke Gifford and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Stoke Gifford hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Stoke Gifford 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
18° 12°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
19° 15°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
19° 13°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
21° 13°
±3°
Tue
Cloudy
22° 14°
±4°
Wed
Cloudy
21° 12°
±6°
Thu
Cloudy
22° 12°
±7°
Fri
Cloudy
25° 13°
±6°
Sat
Light drizzle
20° 13°
±3°
Sun
Light drizzle
18° 11°
models agree
Mon
Partly cloudy
19° 11°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
22° 10°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
19° 13°
±5°
Thu
Cloudy
17° 10°
models agree

Stoke Gifford, England is at its warmest in Jun (average highs near 20°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 3°C), with roughly 1203 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Stoke Gifford right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Stoke Gifford climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
10°
Mar
11°
Apr
13°
May
17°
Jun
20°
12°
Jul
20°
13°
Aug
20°
14°
Sep
19°
12°
Oct
15°
10°
Nov
11°
Dec
10°

Which forecast is most accurate in Stoke Gifford?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
95
/100rank #1
94±0.3°C97±0.8 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
89
/100rank #2
83±1.0°C97±1.1 mph8994% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
Met Office logo
Met Office
85
/100rank #3
91±0.5°C96±1.1 mph7184% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1887 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°17° to 18°±24%1% to 25% chance
Tomorrow±1°19° to 20°±50%32% to 82% chance
Sun±1°19° to 20°±27%10% to 37% chance
Mon±3°20° to 23°±4%0% to 4% chance
Tue±4°20° to 24°±1%2% to 3% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Stoke Gifford

today, local time
Sunrise
06:49
Sunset
19:17
Daylight
12h 28m

Common questions

What's the weather in Stoke Gifford today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Stoke Gifford today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Stoke Gifford today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Stoke Gifford and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Stoke Gifford?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Stoke Gifford (CheckWeather Score 95/100), ahead of the American at 89. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Stoke Gifford?
June is typically the warmest month in Stoke Gifford, with average highs around 20°C.
How cold does Stoke Gifford get?
The coldest month in Stoke Gifford is January, when overnight lows average about 3°C.
How much rain does Stoke Gifford get?
Stoke Gifford sees roughly 1203 mm of precipitation a year, with September usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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