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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Wrexham weather

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Light drizzle,much the same tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 19° in Wrexham today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 17°, with a 0% chance of rain.

19°13°
17°
21°
21°12°
17°
18°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±3°Tuesdaysplit ±4°Wednesdaysplit ±4°Thursdaysplit ±4°
Met OfficeUKMO model
19°
Light drizzle
Today 19°·Low 13°·Rain -
EuropeanECMWF
18°
Light drizzle
Today 18°·Low 15°·Rain 80%
AmericanNOAA GFS
19°
Light drizzle
Today 19°·Low 11°·Rain 81%
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Wrexham weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for Wales

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for Wales…

Wrexham weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Wrexham swings 17°C across the year, from 19°C highs in June to 2°C lows in January, and September is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1172 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 6 days a year at 25°C or above, 30 frost nights, and rain on 165 days.

Warmest month
June
19°C average high
Coldest month
January
2°C average low
Wettest month
September
1172 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
66,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
84/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
6 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
30 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
165 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Wrexham’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Wrexham and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Wrexham hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Wrexham 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
19° 13°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
17°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
21°
±3°
Tue
Cloudy
21° 12°
±4°
Wed
Light drizzle
17°
±4°
Thu
Cloudy
18°
±4°
Fri
Light drizzle
18°
±6°
Sat
Cloudy
18°
±8°
Sun
Light drizzle
20°
±3°
Mon
Cloudy
21° 10°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
17° 11°
±5°
Wed
Cloudy
17°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
19° 11°
models agree
Fri
Drizzle
17° 13°
±4°

Wrexham, Wales is at its warmest in Jun (average highs near 19°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 2°C), with roughly 1172 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Wrexham right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Wrexham climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
11°
May
16°
Jun
19°
10°
Jul
19°
12°
Aug
19°
12°
Sep
17°
11°
Oct
14°
Nov
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Wrexham?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
84
/100rank #1
91±0.5°C98±0.7 mph6581% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
75
/100rank #2
77±1.3°C95±1.7 mph5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
Met Office logo
Met Office
69
/100rank #3
73±1.5°C95±1.6 mph4771% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1887 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°18° to 19°±1%80% to 81% chance
Tomorrowmodels agree17° to 17°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±3°20° to 23°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±4°19° to 24°models agree7% to 7% chance
Wed±4°15° to 20°±25%16% to 41% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Wrexham

today, local time
Sunrise
06:52
Sunset
19:17
Daylight
12h 25m

Common questions

What's the weather in Wrexham today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Wrexham today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Wrexham today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Wrexham and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Wrexham?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Wrexham (CheckWeather Score 84/100), ahead of the American at 75. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Wrexham?
June is typically the warmest month in Wrexham, with average highs around 19°C.
How cold does Wrexham get?
The coldest month in Wrexham is January, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Wrexham get?
Wrexham sees roughly 1172 mm of precipitation a year, with September usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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