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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Yorkshire weather

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Light drizzle,much the same tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 19° in Yorkshire today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 17°, with a 1% chance of rain.

19°14°
17°11°
20°
21°13°
19°
18°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±3°Wednesdaysplit ±4°Thursdaymodels agree
Met OfficeUKMO model
19°
Light drizzle
Today 19°·Low 15°·Rain -
EuropeanECMWF
19°
Light drizzle
Today 19°·Low 14°·Rain 41%
AmericanNOAA GFS
20°
Light drizzle
Today 20°·Low 14°·Rain 97%
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Yorkshire weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for Yorkshire & Humber

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for Yorkshire & Humber…

Yorkshire weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Yorkshire swings 18°C across the year, from 20°C highs in July to 2°C lows in January, and December is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 935 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 9 days a year at 25°C or above, 35 frost nights, and rain on 148 days.

Warmest month
July
20°C average high
Coldest month
January
2°C average low
Wettest month
December
935 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Most accurate here
European
90/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
9 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
35 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
148 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Yorkshire’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Yorkshire and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Yorkshire hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Yorkshire 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
19° 14°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
17° 11°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
20°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
21° 13°
±3°
Wed
Drizzle
19°
±4°
Thu
Cloudy
18°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
19° 10°
±5°
Sat
Cloudy
19°
±7°
Sun
Light drizzle
20°
±5°
Mon
Cloudy
22° 11°
±5°
Tue
Cloudy
18° 13°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
17° 10°
±4°
Thu
Cloudy
20° 11°
models agree
Fri
Drizzle
18° 15°
±5°

Yorkshire, England is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 20°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 2°C), with roughly 935 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Yorkshire right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Yorkshire climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
10°
Mar
10°
Apr
12°
May
17°
Jun
19°
11°
Jul
20°
12°
Aug
20°
12°
Sep
19°
11°
Oct
15°
Nov
10°
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Yorkshire?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
93±0.4°C98±0.6 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
83
/100rank #2
80±1.1°C90±3.2 mph8290% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
Met Office logo
Met Office
81
/100rank #3
90±0.6°C97±0.9 mph5877% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1887 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°19° to 20°±56%41% to 97% chance
Tomorrow±1°17° to 18°±1%0% to 1% chance
Mon±1°20° to 20°±3%6% to 9% chance
Tue±3°20° to 23°±4%2% to 6% chance
Wed±4°18° to 21°±21%17% to 38% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Yorkshire

today, local time
Sunrise
06:44
Sunset
19:10
Daylight
12h 26m

Common questions

What's the weather in Yorkshire today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Yorkshire today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Yorkshire today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Yorkshire and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Yorkshire?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Yorkshire (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the American at 83. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Yorkshire?
July is typically the warmest month in Yorkshire, with average highs around 20°C.
How cold does Yorkshire get?
The coldest month in Yorkshire is January, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Yorkshire get?
Yorkshire sees roughly 935 mm of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More UK weather