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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Atherton weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 21° in Atherton today. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 23°, with a 59% chance of rain.

21°13°
23°12°
23°12°
22°13°
21°14°
21°15°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±3°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
20°
Light drizzle
Today 20°·Low 13°·Rain 61%
AmericanNOAA GFS
22°
Cloudy
Today 22°·Low 13°·Rain 0%
GermanDWD ICON
22°
Partly cloudy
Today 22°·Low 14°·Rain 0%
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Atherton weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Atherton swings 15°C across the year, from 28°C highs in November to 13°C lows in July, and December is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1597 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
November
28°C average high
Coldest month
July
13°C average low
Wettest month
December
1597 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
February, March, April and May
Residents
7,576
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Atherton and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Atherton hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Atherton 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
21° 13°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
23° 12°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
23° 12°
±3°
Tue
Light drizzle
22° 13°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
21° 14°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
21° 15°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
21° 15°
models agree
Sat
Light drizzle
23° 15°
±4°
Sun
Light drizzle
23° 16°
±4°
Mon
Light drizzle
23° 15°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
23° 15°
±5°
Wed
Light drizzle
23° 15°
±3°
Thu
Light drizzle
22° 15°
±4°
Fri
Light drizzle
22° 15°
±3°

Atherton, Queensland is at its warmest in Nov (average highs near 28°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 13°C), with roughly 1597 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Atherton right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Atherton climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
27°
20°
Feb
26°
20°
Mar
26°
19°
Apr
25°
18°
May
22°
15°
Jun
22°
14°
Jul
21°
13°
Aug
21°
13°
Sep
23°
14°
Oct
27°
15°
Nov
28°
17°
Dec
28°
19°

Which forecast is most accurate in Atherton?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
87
/100rank #1
95±0.3°C97±1.4 km/t7184% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
82
/100rank #2
93±0.4°C96±2.1 km/t5877% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American logo
American
80
/100rank #3
73±1.5°C90±4.9 km/t8290% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1495 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°20° to 22°±61%0% to 61% chance
Tomorrow±2°22° to 24°±59%0% to 59% chance
Mon±3°22° to 25°±6%0% to 6% chance
Tue±2°22° to 24°±30%0% to 30% chance
Wed±1°21° to 22°±75%21% to 96% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Atherton

today, local time
Sunrise
06:10
Sunset
18:13
Daylight
12h 3m

Common questions

What's the weather in Atherton today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Atherton today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Atherton today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Atherton and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Atherton?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Atherton (CheckWeather Score 87/100), ahead of the German at 82. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Atherton?
November is typically the warmest month in Atherton, with average highs around 28°C.
How cold does Atherton get?
The coldest month in Atherton is July, when overnight lows average about 13°C.
How much rain does Atherton get?
Atherton sees roughly 1597 mm of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More AU weather