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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Melbourne weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 26° in Melbourne today. Tomorrow looks partly cloudy around 27°, with a 15% chance of rain.

26°13°
27°14°
16°
17°
22°
26°11°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±2°Thursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
26°
Light drizzle
Today 26°·Low 14°·Rain 34%
AmericanNOAA GFS
27°
Cloudy
Today 27°·Low 12°·Rain 0%
GermanDWD ICON
26°
Cloudy
Today 26°·Low 14°·Rain 0%
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Melbourne weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Melbourne swings 19°C across the year, from 26°C highs in February to 7°C lows in June, and December is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 748 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
February
26°C average high
Coldest month
June
7°C average low
Wettest month
December
748 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
5.4 million
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Melbourne and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Melbourne in 3D: the weather on the streets, hour by hour

Rain, sun and real shadows drawn on a 3D map of Melbourne, 48 hours ahead. Drag the timeline, pick what you are doing or where you are going, and read the verdict for that hour.Full screen ↗

What are you doing?

Where are you going?

Melbourne hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

Loading the three models…

Melbourne 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
26° 13°
models agree
Tomorrow
Partly cloudy
27° 14°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
16°
models agree
Tue
Partly cloudy
17°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
22°
±2°
Thu
Cloudy
26° 11°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
28° 18°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
28° 16°
±3°
Sun
Cloudy
29° 13°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
26° 18°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
21° 13°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
17° 11°
models agree
Thu
Mostly clear
20° 11°
±9°
Fri
Light drizzle
23° 13°
±7°

Melbourne, Victoria. Often shortened to Melb. Below we compare what European, American, German forecast for Melbourne right now and flag exactly where they disagree, then break down Melbourne's weather month by month and which forecast model has been most accurate here.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Melbourne weather by month

what to expect in Melbourne through the year

Here is Melbourne's typical weather in each month: the average daytime high and overnight low in °C, how each month feels, and the wettest month marked. Use it to plan any trip to Melbourne by season.

Jan
25°
15°
Warm
Feb
26°
14°
Warm
Mar
24°
13°
Warm
Apr
19°
10°
Mild
May
16°
Mild
Jun
14°
Cool
Jul
13°
Cool
Aug
16°
Mild
Sep
18°
Mild
Oct
19°
Mild
Nov
22°
13°
Warm
Dec
24°
14°
Warm
Wettest

What Melbourne's weather is like through the year

Melbourne runs from warm summers, with February highs near 26°C, to cold winters, when June lows sit around 7°C (a swing of about 19°C across the year). December is usually the wettest month, and Melbourne sees roughly 748 mm of precipitation annually.

Best time to visit Melbourne

The most comfortable time to visit Melbourne is usually January, February, March and April, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest December rain is behind you.

Which forecast is most accurate in Melbourne?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
88
/100rank #1
93±0.4°C97±1.5 km/t7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
81
/100rank #2
81±1.0°C96±1.9 km/t7184% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American logo
American
76
/100rank #3
83±1.0°C96±1.9 km/t5374% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1495 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Bottom line: over the last 30 days the European model has been the most accurate forecast for Melbourne, scoring 88/100 on our CheckWeather Score, ahead of the German at 81. See the full AU accuracy scoreboard for exactly how every model is tested.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°26° to 27°±34%0% to 34% chance
Tomorrow±2°26° to 28°±15%0% to 15% chance
Mon±1°16° to 17°±20%23% to 43% chance
Tue±2°16° to 18°models agree0% to 0% chance
Wed±2°21° to 23°models agree0% to 0% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Melbourne

today, local time
Sunrise
06:14
Sunset
18:13
Daylight
11h 59m

Common questions

What's the weather in Melbourne today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Melbourne today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Melbourne today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Melbourne and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Melbourne?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Melbourne (CheckWeather Score 88/100), ahead of the German at 81. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Melbourne?
February is typically the warmest month in Melbourne, with average highs around 26°C.
How cold does Melbourne get?
The coldest month in Melbourne is June, when overnight lows average about 7°C.
How much rain does Melbourne get?
Melbourne sees roughly 748 mm of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.
When is the best time to visit Melbourne?
The most comfortable time to visit Melbourne is usually January, February, March and April, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest December rain is behind you.
Does it snow in Melbourne?
Rarely - Melbourne very seldom sees overnight lows drop below freezing, so lasting snow is unusual.

Nearby

More AU weather