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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Oakleigh weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 26° in Oakleigh today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 27°, with a 15% chance of rain.

26°14°
27°14°
16°
17°
21°
26°10°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
25°
Light drizzle
Today 25°·Low 14°·Rain 34%
AmericanNOAA GFS
25°
Cloudy
Today 25°·Low 13°·Rain 0%
GermanDWD ICON
26°
Cloudy
Today 26°·Low 15°·Rain 0%
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Oakleigh weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Oakleigh swings 18°C across the year, from 25°C highs in January to 7°C lows in June, and April is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 831 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
25°C average high
Coldest month
June
7°C average low
Wettest month
April
831 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and May
Residents
8,442
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Oakleigh and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Oakleigh hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Oakleigh 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
26° 14°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
27° 14°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
16°
models agree
Tue
Partly cloudy
17°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
21°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
26° 10°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
28° 18°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
28° 16°
±3°
Sun
Cloudy
28° 13°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
26° 18°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
21° 13°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
17° 11°
models agree
Thu
Mostly clear
20° 11°
±9°
Fri
Light drizzle
24° 13°
±6°

Oakleigh, Victoria is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 25°C) and coldest in Jun (lows around 7°C), with roughly 831 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Oakleigh right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Oakleigh climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
25°
15°
Feb
25°
14°
Mar
23°
14°
Apr
18°
11°
May
16°
Jun
14°
Jul
13°
Aug
16°
Sep
17°
Oct
19°
10°
Nov
22°
13°
Dec
24°
14°

Which forecast is most accurate in Oakleigh?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
80
/100rank #1
86±0.8°C92±4.0 km/t6581% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
75
/100rank #2
80±1.1°C97±1.6 km/t5374% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
74
/100rank #3
82±1.0°C92±3.8 km/t5374% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1495 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°25° to 26°±34%0% to 34% chance
Tomorrow±2°26° to 28°±15%0% to 15% chance
Mon±1°16° to 16°±20%23% to 43% chance
Tue±2°16° to 18°models agree0% to 0% chance
Wed±2°20° to 22°models agree0% to 0% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Oakleigh

today, local time
Sunrise
06:14
Sunset
18:13
Daylight
11h 59m

Common questions

What's the weather in Oakleigh today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Oakleigh today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Oakleigh today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Oakleigh and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Oakleigh?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Oakleigh (CheckWeather Score 80/100), ahead of the American at 75. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Oakleigh?
January is typically the warmest month in Oakleigh, with average highs around 25°C.
How cold does Oakleigh get?
The coldest month in Oakleigh is June, when overnight lows average about 7°C.
How much rain does Oakleigh get?
Oakleigh sees roughly 831 mm of precipitation a year, with April usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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