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CheckWeather AUSomerville
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 3°C

Somerville weather

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Cloudy,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model put Somerville's high today between 21° and 23°, a 3° split. Tomorrow looks drizzle around 24°, with a 32% chance of rain.

22°14°
24°14°
14°
15°
18°
24°10°
Todaysplit ±3°Tomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±3°Wednesdaysplit ±3°Thursdaysplit ±3°
EuropeanECMWF
22°
Cloudy
Today 22°·Low 14°·Rain 16%
AmericanNOAA GFS
21°
Cloudy
Today 21°·Low 14°·Rain 0%
GermanDWD ICON
23°
Cloudy
Today 23°·Low 14°·Rain 0%
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Somerville weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Somerville swings 17°C across the year, from 25°C highs in January to 8°C lows in June, and April is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 744 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
25°C average high
Coldest month
June
8°C average low
Wettest month
April
744 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and September
Residents
12,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Somerville and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Somerville hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Somerville 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
22° 14°
±3°
Tomorrow
Drizzle
24° 14°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
14°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
15°
±3°
Wed
Cloudy
18°
±3°
Thu
Cloudy
24° 10°
±3°
Fri
Cloudy
26° 15°
±4°
Sat
Cloudy
24° 14°
±3°
Sun
Partly cloudy
24° 13°
±3°
Mon
Light drizzle
25° 14°
±3°
Tue
Heavy drizzle
18° 12°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
15° 10°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
18°
±8°
Fri
Cloudy
21° 12°
±7°

Somerville, Victoria is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 25°C) and coldest in Jun (lows around 8°C), with roughly 744 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Somerville right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Somerville climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
25°
15°
Feb
24°
14°
Mar
23°
14°
Apr
18°
11°
May
15°
Jun
13°
Jul
13°
Aug
15°
Sep
17°
Oct
18°
Nov
22°
12°
Dec
23°
14°

Which forecast is most accurate in Somerville?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
89
/100rank #1
92±0.4°C94±2.8 km/t8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
88
/100rank #2
89±0.6°C95±2.6 km/t8290% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
88
/100rank #3
90±0.5°C93±3.6 km/t8290% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1495 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°21° to 23°±16%0% to 16% chance
Tomorrow±2°23° to 25°±26%6% to 32% chance
Mon±2°13° to 15°±46%38% to 84% chance
Tue±3°13° to 16°models agree0% to 0% chance
Wed±3°17° to 20°models agree0% to 0% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Somerville

today, local time
Sunrise
06:13
Sunset
18:12
Daylight
11h 59m

Common questions

What's the weather in Somerville today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Somerville today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Somerville today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Somerville and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Somerville?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Somerville (CheckWeather Score 89/100), ahead of the American at 88. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Somerville?
January is typically the warmest month in Somerville, with average highs around 25°C.
How cold does Somerville get?
The coldest month in Somerville is June, when overnight lows average about 8°C.
How much rain does Somerville get?
Somerville sees roughly 744 mm of precipitation a year, with April usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More AU weather