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CheckWeather CACentral Saanich
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 2°C

Central Saanich weather

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Mostly clear,much the same tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Central Saanich's high today between 20° and 22°, a 2° split. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 21°, with a 0% chance of rain.

21°10°
21°10°
20°10°
20°11°
19°10°
18°10°
Todaysplit ±2°Tomorrowmodels agreeSundaymodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±3°Wednesdaymodels agree
Env. CanadaGEM model
20°
Mostly clear
Today 20°·Low ·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
20°
Partly cloudy
Today 20°·Low 12°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
22°
Cloudy
Today 22°·Low 10°·Rain 0%
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Central Saanich weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Central Saanich swings 20°C across the year, from 23°C highs in July to 3°C lows in January, and November is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1005 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 16 days a year at 25°C or above, 1 of them at 30°C or above, 21 frost nights, and rain on 138 days.

Warmest month
July
23°C average high
Coldest month
January
3°C average low
Wettest month
November
1005 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
17,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
82/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
16 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
21 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
138 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Central Saanich’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Central Saanich and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Central Saanich hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Central Saanich 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
21° 10°
±2°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
21° 10°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
20° 10°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
20° 11°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
19° 10°
±3°
Wed
Cloudy
18° 10°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
16°
±2°
Fri
Cloudy
16° 10°
±3°
Sat
Mostly clear
17°
±6°
Sun
Partly cloudy
17°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
19° 10°
±6°
Tue
Heavy drizzle
17° 10°
±3°
Wed
Light drizzle
17° 10°
±4°
Thu
Light drizzle
15°
±3°

Central Saanich, British Columbia is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 23°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 3°C), with roughly 1005 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Central Saanich right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Central Saanich climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
11°
May
17°
10°
Jun
19°
11°
Jul
23°
14°
Aug
22°
14°
Sep
18°
11°
Oct
13°
Nov
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Central Saanich?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
82
/100rank #1
74±1.4°C93±3.7 km/t8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
76
/100rank #2
84±0.9°C90±4.9 km/t5877% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
American logo
American
67
/100rank #3
58±2.4°C93±3.7 km/t5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1304 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°20° to 22°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±2°20° to 22°models agree0% to 0% chance
Sun±1°19° to 21°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±2°19° to 21°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±3°18° to 20°±5%0% to 5% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Central Saanich

today, local time
Sunrise
06:54
Sunset
19:19
Daylight
12h 25m

Common questions

What's the weather in Central Saanich today?
On this page we show what Env. Canada, European, American each forecast for Central Saanich today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Central Saanich today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Env. Canada, European, American for Central Saanich and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Central Saanich?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Central Saanich (CheckWeather Score 82/100), ahead of the Env. Canada at 76. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Central Saanich?
July is typically the warmest month in Central Saanich, with average highs around 23°C.
How cold does Central Saanich get?
The coldest month in Central Saanich is January, when overnight lows average about 3°C.
How much rain does Central Saanich get?
Central Saanich sees roughly 1005 mm of precipitation a year, with November usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More CA weather