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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Erin weather

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Cloudy,rain likely tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 17° in Erin today. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 19°, with a 53% chance of rain.

17°
19°11°
15°
15°
15°
15°10°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±2°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
Env. CanadaGEM model
18°
Light drizzle
Today 18°·Low ·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
16°
Cloudy
Today 16°·Low ·Rain 18%
AmericanNOAA GFS
18°
Cloudy
Today 18°·Low ·Rain 10%
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Erin weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Erin swings 34°C across the year, from 26°C highs in July to -8°C lows in February, and April is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1041 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
26°C average high
Coldest month
February
-8°C average low
Wettest month
April
1041 mm a year
Below freezing
4 months
January, February, March and December
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
12,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Erin and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Erin hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Erin 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
17°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
19° 11°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
15°
±2°
Tue
Cloudy
15°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
15°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
15° 10°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
19°
models agree
Sat
Mostly clear
20°
±2°
Sun
Mostly clear
20°
±4°
Mon
Cloudy
20°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
19° 13°
±3°
Wed
Drizzle
16° 11°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
13°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
15°
±7°

Erin, Ontario is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 26°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around -8°C), with roughly 1041 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Erin right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Erin climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
-1°
-6°
Feb
-8°
Mar
-4°
Apr
13°
May
20°
Jun
23°
13°
Jul
26°
15°
Aug
24°
14°
Sep
22°
12°
Oct
15°
Nov
Dec
-4°

Which forecast is most accurate in Erin?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
92±0.5°C98±1.0 km/t8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
78
/100rank #2
81±1.0°C91±4.7 km/t6581% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
American logo
American
76
/100rank #3
84±0.9°C95±2.4 km/t5374% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1304 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°16° to 18°±18%0% to 18% chance
Tomorrow±1°18° to 19°±10%43% to 53% chance
Mon±2°14° to 16°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±1°15° to 16°±2%4% to 6% chance
Wed±2°14° to 16°±6%19% to 25% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Erin

today, local time
Sunrise
07:04
Sunset
19:22
Daylight
12h 18m

Common questions

What's the weather in Erin today?
On this page we show what Env. Canada, European, American each forecast for Erin today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Erin today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Env. Canada, European, American for Erin and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Erin?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Erin (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the Env. Canada at 78. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Erin?
July is typically the warmest month in Erin, with average highs around 26°C.
How cold does Erin get?
The coldest month in Erin is February, when overnight lows average about -8°C.
How much rain does Erin get?
Erin sees roughly 1041 mm of precipitation a year, with April usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More CA weather