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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 2°C

Essex weather

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Drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Essex's high today between 19° and 22°, a 2° split. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 20°, with a 97% chance of rain.

21°16°
20°16°
18°13°
18°12°
16°14°
17°13°
Todaysplit ±2°Tomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±3°Tuesdaysplit ±3°Wednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±3°
Env. CanadaGEM model
19°
Drizzle
Today 19°·Low 15°·Rain 90%
EuropeanECMWF
21°
Rain
Today 21°·Low 16°·Rain 90%
AmericanNOAA GFS
22°
Drizzle
Today 22°·Low 16°·Rain 47%
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Essex weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Essex swings 31°C across the year, from 27°C highs in July to -4°C lows in January, and April is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 967 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
27°C average high
Coldest month
January
-4°C average low
Wettest month
April
967 mm a year
Below freezing
3 months
January, February and March
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, August and September
Residents
8,233
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The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Essex and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Essex hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Essex 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
21° 16°
±2°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
20° 16°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
18° 13°
±3°
Tue
Showers
18° 12°
±3°
Wed
Drizzle
16° 14°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
17° 13°
±3°
Fri
Mostly clear
19° 11°
±3°
Sat
Clear
20° 11°
±3°
Sun
Mostly clear
20° 11°
±2°
Mon
Partly cloudy
21° 12°
±2°
Tue
Drizzle
18° 14°
±4°
Wed
Light drizzle
19° 13°
±5°
Thu
Clear
17° 10°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
19° 10°
±4°

Essex, Ontario is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 27°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around -4°C), with roughly 967 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Essex right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Essex climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
-4°
Feb
-3°
Mar
-1°
Apr
15°
May
21°
10°
Jun
26°
16°
Jul
27°
18°
Aug
26°
17°
Sep
24°
15°
Oct
17°
Nov
10°
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Essex?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
85
/100rank #1
89±0.6°C97±1.4 km/t7184% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
72
/100rank #2
75±1.4°C93±3.6 km/t5374% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
American logo
American
68
/100rank #3
87±0.7°C94±3.1 km/t2961% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1304 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°19° to 22°±43%47% to 90% chance
Tomorrow±2°19° to 21°±35%62% to 97% chance
Mon±3°17° to 20°±9%5% to 14% chance
Tue±3°17° to 20°±9%24% to 33% chance
Wed±1°15° to 16°±11%41% to 52% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Essex

today, local time
Sunrise
07:15
Sunset
19:33
Daylight
12h 18m

Common questions

What's the weather in Essex today?
On this page we show what Env. Canada, European, American each forecast for Essex today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Essex today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Env. Canada, European, American for Essex and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Essex?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Essex (CheckWeather Score 85/100), ahead of the Env. Canada at 72. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Essex?
July is typically the warmest month in Essex, with average highs around 27°C.
How cold does Essex get?
The coldest month in Essex is January, when overnight lows average about -4°C.
How much rain does Essex get?
Essex sees roughly 967 mm of precipitation a year, with April usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More CA weather