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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Lafleche weather

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Cloudy,rain likely tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 17° in Lafleche today. Tomorrow looks rain around 17°, with a 84% chance of rain, and the models disagree, so treat it as uncertain.

17°
17°
15°
15°
18°
18°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±5°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
Env. CanadaGEM model
18°
Clear
Today 18°·Low ·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
16°
Cloudy
Today 16°·Low ·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
17°
Cloudy
Today 17°·Low ·Rain 0%
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Lafleche weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Lafleche swings 38°C across the year, from 27°C highs in July to -11°C lows in February, and August is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1211 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 67 days a year at 25°C or above, 12 of them at 30°C or above, 143 frost nights, and rain on 142 days.

Warmest month
July
27°C average high
Coldest month
February
-11°C average low
Wettest month
August
1211 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, September and October
Residents
17,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
93/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
67 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
143 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
142 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Lafleche’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Lafleche and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Lafleche hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Lafleche 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
17°
models agree
Tomorrow
Rain
17°
±5°
Mon
Cloudy
15°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
15°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
18°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
18°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
19° 11°
±6°
Sat
Partly cloudy
20° 10°
models agree
Sun
Mostly clear
18° 10°
±4°
Mon
Light drizzle
18° 11°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
19° 14°
±3°
Wed
Rain
23° 14°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
18° 13°
±7°
Fri
Mostly clear
15°
±3°

Lafleche, Quebec is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 27°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around -11°C), with roughly 1211 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Lafleche right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Lafleche climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
-2°
-9°
Feb
-1°
-11°
Mar
-4°
Apr
13°
May
20°
Jun
24°
15°
Jul
27°
19°
Aug
24°
16°
Sep
23°
14°
Oct
16°
Nov
Dec
-6°

Which forecast is most accurate in Lafleche?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
93±0.4°C98±1.2 km/t8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
76
/100rank #2
75±1.4°C94±2.9 km/t6581% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
American logo
American
74
/100rank #3
84±0.9°C95±2.3 km/t4771% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1304 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°16° to 18°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±5°15° to 19°±27%57% to 84% chance
Mon±1°15° to 16°±3%0% to 3% chance
Tue±2°14° to 16°models agree0% to 0% chance
Wed±1°18° to 19°models agree0% to 0% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Lafleche

today, local time
Sunrise
06:37
Sunset
18:57
Daylight
12h 20m

Common questions

What's the weather in Lafleche today?
On this page we show what Env. Canada, European, American each forecast for Lafleche today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Lafleche today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Env. Canada, European, American for Lafleche and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Lafleche?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Lafleche (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the Env. Canada at 76. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Lafleche?
July is typically the warmest month in Lafleche, with average highs around 27°C.
How cold does Lafleche get?
The coldest month in Lafleche is February, when overnight lows average about -11°C.
How much rain does Lafleche get?
Lafleche sees roughly 1211 mm of precipitation a year, with August usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More CA weather