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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 2°C

Newmarket weather

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Cloudy,rain likely tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Newmarket's high today between 16° and 19°, a 2° split. Tomorrow looks drizzle around 19°, with a 51% chance of rain.

17°
19°11°
16°
17°
15°
17°11°
Todaysplit ±2°Tomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±2°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±4°Thursdaymodels agree
Env. CanadaGEM model
19°
Cloudy
Today 19°·Low ·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
16°
Cloudy
Today 16°·Low ·Rain 8%
AmericanNOAA GFS
18°
Cloudy
Today 18°·Low ·Rain 1%
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Newmarket weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Newmarket swings 33°C across the year, from 26°C highs in July to -7°C lows in February, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1003 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 64 days a year at 25°C or above, 11 of them at 30°C or above, 141 frost nights, and rain on 141 days.

Warmest month
July
26°C average high
Coldest month
February
-7°C average low
Wettest month
July
1003 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, August and September
Residents
91,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
96/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
64 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
141 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
141 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Newmarket’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Newmarket and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Newmarket hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Newmarket 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
17°
±2°
Tomorrow
Drizzle
19° 11°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
16°
±2°
Tue
Cloudy
17°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
15°
±4°
Thu
Cloudy
17° 11°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
20°
±3°
Sat
Clear
21°
±2°
Sun
Clear
21°
±3°
Mon
Cloudy
21°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
20° 13°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
18° 13°
±2°
Thu
Cloudy
14°
±3°
Fri
Cloudy
15°
±8°

Newmarket, Ontario is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 26°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around -7°C), with roughly 1003 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Newmarket right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Newmarket climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
-6°
Feb
-7°
Mar
-4°
Apr
13°
May
20°
Jun
23°
14°
Jul
26°
16°
Aug
24°
15°
Sep
23°
13°
Oct
15°
Nov
Dec
-3°

Which forecast is most accurate in Newmarket?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
96
/100rank #1
95±0.3°C98±0.9 km/t9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
82
/100rank #2
80±1.1°C95±2.7 km/t7687% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
American logo
American
78
/100rank #3
79±1.2°C96±1.9 km/t6581% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1304 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°16° to 19°±8%0% to 8% chance
Tomorrowmodels agree19° to 20°±16%35% to 51% chance
Mon±2°15° to 17°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±2°16° to 18°±4%0% to 4% chance
Wed±4°13° to 17°±11%8% to 19% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Newmarket

today, local time
Sunrise
07:01
Sunset
19:20
Daylight
12h 19m

Common questions

What's the weather in Newmarket today?
On this page we show what Env. Canada, European, American each forecast for Newmarket today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Newmarket today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Env. Canada, European, American for Newmarket and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Newmarket?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Newmarket (CheckWeather Score 96/100), ahead of the Env. Canada at 82. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Newmarket?
July is typically the warmest month in Newmarket, with average highs around 26°C.
How cold does Newmarket get?
The coldest month in Newmarket is February, when overnight lows average about -7°C.
How much rain does Newmarket get?
Newmarket sees roughly 1003 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More CA weather