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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Shawinigan weather

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Clear,rain likely tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 16° in Shawinigan today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 15°, with a 51% chance of rain.

16°
15°
14°
16°
17°
18°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±2°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
Env. CanadaGEM model
17°
Clear
Today 17°·Low ·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
15°
Mostly clear
Today 15°·Low ·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
15°
Cloudy
Today 15°·Low ·Rain 0%
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Shawinigan weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Shawinigan swings 40°C across the year, from 26°C highs in July to -14°C lows in February, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1249 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 46 days a year at 25°C or above, 5 of them at 30°C or above, 163 frost nights, and rain on 141 days.

Warmest month
July
26°C average high
Coldest month
February
-14°C average low
Wettest month
July
1249 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, August and September
Residents
38,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
93/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
46 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
163 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
141 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Shawinigan’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Shawinigan and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Shawinigan hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Shawinigan 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
16°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
15°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
14°
±2°
Tue
Cloudy
16°
models agree
Wed
Clear
17°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
18°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
19°
±6°
Sat
Mostly clear
19°
models agree
Sun
Clear
18°
±5°
Mon
Light drizzle
17°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
17° 11°
models agree
Wed
Light rain
19° 10°
models agree
Thu
Heavy drizzle
17° 11°
±5°
Fri
Light drizzle
14°
±4°

Shawinigan, Quebec is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 26°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around -14°C), with roughly 1249 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Shawinigan right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Shawinigan climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
-4°
-12°
Feb
-3°
-14°
Mar
-6°
Apr
11°
May
19°
Jun
23°
14°
Jul
26°
17°
Aug
23°
15°
Sep
22°
12°
Oct
14°
Nov
-2°
Dec
-2°
-10°

Which forecast is most accurate in Shawinigan?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
94±0.4°C98±1.2 km/t8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
77
/100rank #2
61±2.1°C95±2.6 km/t8290% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
American logo
American
73
/100rank #3
87±0.7°C95±2.4 km/t4268% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1304 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°15° to 17°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±1°15° to 15°±37%14% to 51% chance
Mon±2°13° to 15°±1%3% to 4% chance
Tue±1°15° to 16°models agree0% to 0% chance
Wedmodels agree17° to 17°models agree0% to 0% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Shawinigan

today, local time
Sunrise
06:34
Sunset
18:54
Daylight
12h 20m

Common questions

What's the weather in Shawinigan today?
On this page we show what Env. Canada, European, American each forecast for Shawinigan today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Shawinigan today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Env. Canada, European, American for Shawinigan and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Shawinigan?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Shawinigan (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the Env. Canada at 77. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Shawinigan?
July is typically the warmest month in Shawinigan, with average highs around 26°C.
How cold does Shawinigan get?
The coldest month in Shawinigan is February, when overnight lows average about -14°C.
How much rain does Shawinigan get?
Shawinigan sees roughly 1249 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More CA weather