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Forecast confidence: Low · models disagree by 7°C

Sooke weather

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Partly cloudy,much the same tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Sooke's high today between 16° and 23°, a 7° split. Tomorrow looks mostly clear around 20°, with a 0% chance of rain, and the models disagree, so treat it as uncertain.

20°
20°10°
21°10°
21°11°
20°10°
19°10°
Todaysplit ±7°Tomorrowsplit ±5°Sundaysplit ±5°Mondaysplit ±4°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±3°
Env. CanadaGEM model
16°
Partly cloudy
Today 16°·Low ·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
22°
Partly cloudy
Today 22°·Low 12°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
23°
Cloudy
Today 23°·Low ·Rain 0%
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Sooke weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Sooke swings 22°C across the year, from 24°C highs in July to 2°C lows in February, and December is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1330 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 20 days a year at 25°C or above, 2 of them at 30°C or above, 23 frost nights, and rain on 152 days.

Warmest month
July
24°C average high
Coldest month
February
2°C average low
Wettest month
December
1330 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
15,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
77/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
20 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
23 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
152 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Sooke’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Sooke and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Sooke hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Sooke 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Partly cloudy
20°
±7°
Tomorrow
Mostly clear
20° 10°
±5°
Sun
Cloudy
21° 10°
±5°
Mon
Cloudy
21° 11°
±4°
Tue
Cloudy
20° 10°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
19° 10°
±3°
Thu
Cloudy
16° 10°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
17° 10°
±3°
Sat
Mostly clear
18°
±3°
Sun
Mostly clear
18° 10°
±6°
Mon
Light rain
20° 12°
±6°
Tue
Light rain
18° 11°
±6°
Wed
Light drizzle
16° 11°
±5°
Thu
Cloudy
16°
±4°

Sooke, British Columbia is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 24°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around 2°C), with roughly 1330 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Sooke right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Sooke climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
Mar
10°
Apr
12°
May
17°
Jun
19°
10°
Jul
24°
13°
Aug
24°
14°
Sep
20°
11°
Oct
15°
Nov
10°
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Sooke?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
77
/100rank #1
74±1.5°C92±3.9 km/t7184% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
74
/100rank #2
65±1.9°C94±3.1 km/t7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
EC
Env. Canada
72
/100rank #3
64±2.0°C96±1.9 km/t6581% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1304 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±7°16° to 23°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±5°17° to 22°models agree0% to 0% chance
Sun±5°18° to 23°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±4°18° to 23°±2%0% to 2% chance
Tue±2°19° to 21°±5%1% to 6% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Sooke

today, local time
Sunrise
06:56
Sunset
19:20
Daylight
12h 24m

Common questions

What's the weather in Sooke today?
On this page we show what Env. Canada, European, American each forecast for Sooke today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Sooke today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Env. Canada, European, American for Sooke and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Sooke?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Sooke (CheckWeather Score 77/100), ahead of the American at 74. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Sooke?
July is typically the warmest month in Sooke, with average highs around 24°C.
How cold does Sooke get?
The coldest month in Sooke is February, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Sooke get?
Sooke sees roughly 1330 mm of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More CA weather