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Forecast confidence: Low · models disagree by 6°C

Rye weather

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Cloudy,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model put Rye's high today between 17° and 23°, a 6° split. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 22°, with a 32% chance of rain.

21°14°
22°14°
14°
14°
18°
21°11°
Todaysplit ±6°Tomorrowsplit ±4°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±3°Wednesdaysplit ±6°Thursdaysplit ±3°
EuropeanECMWF
17°
Cloudy
Today 17°·Low 15°·Rain 12%
AmericanNOAA GFS
22°
Cloudy
Today 22°·Low 14°·Rain 0%
GermanDWD ICON
23°
Cloudy
Today 23°·Low 14°·Rain 0%
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Rye weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Rye swings 14°C across the year, from 23°C highs in January to 9°C lows in July, and December is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 745 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
23°C average high
Coldest month
July
9°C average low
Wettest month
December
745 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
9,438
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Rye and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Rye hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Rye 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
21° 14°
±6°
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
22° 14°
±4°
Mon
Light drizzle
14°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
14°
±3°
Wed
Cloudy
18°
±6°
Thu
Cloudy
21° 11°
±3°
Fri
Cloudy
23° 16°
±6°
Sat
Cloudy
21° 14°
±9°
Sun
Partly cloudy
22° 14°
±8°
Mon
Light rain
22° 16°
±3°
Tue
Light rain
17° 12°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
15° 12°
±3°
Thu
Mostly clear
16° 12°
±4°
Fri
Cloudy
18° 13°
models agree

Rye, Victoria is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 23°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 9°C), with roughly 745 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Rye right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Rye climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
23°
16°
Feb
23°
15°
Mar
21°
15°
Apr
17°
13°
May
15°
11°
Jun
13°
10°
Jul
13°
Aug
14°
10°
Sep
16°
10°
Oct
17°
11°
Nov
20°
13°
Dec
21°
14°

Which forecast is most accurate in Rye?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
American logo
American ★ Best
86
/100rank #1
84±0.9°C87±6.3 km/t8994% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
86
/100rank #2
91±0.5°C84±8.1 km/t8290% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
European logo
European
79
/100rank #3
86±0.8°C88±6.1 km/t6581% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1495 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±6°17° to 23°±12%0% to 12% chance
Tomorrow±4°20° to 24°±24%8% to 32% chance
Mon±2°14° to 15°±42%33% to 75% chance
Tue±3°12° to 15°models agree0% to 0% chance
Wed±6°14° to 20°models agree0% to 0% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Rye

today, local time
Sunrise
06:15
Sunset
18:14
Daylight
11h 59m

Common questions

What's the weather in Rye today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Rye today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Rye today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Rye and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Rye?
Over the last 30 days, the American model has been the most accurate for Rye (CheckWeather Score 86/100), ahead of the German at 86. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Rye?
January is typically the warmest month in Rye, with average highs around 23°C.
How cold does Rye get?
The coldest month in Rye is July, when overnight lows average about 9°C.
How much rain does Rye get?
Rye sees roughly 745 mm of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More AU weather