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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 3°C

Elmira weather

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Cloudy,rain likely tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Elmira's high today between 16° and 19°, a 3° split. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 20°, with a 66% chance of rain.

18°
20°11°
15°
16°
15°10°
15°10°
Todaysplit ±3°Tomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±3°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±4°
Env. CanadaGEM model
19°
Light drizzle
Today 19°·Low ·Rain 15%
EuropeanECMWF
16°
Cloudy
Today 16°·Low 10°·Rain 47%
AmericanNOAA GFS
19°
Cloudy
Today 19°·Low ·Rain 13%
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Elmira weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Elmira swings 33°C across the year, from 26°C highs in July to -7°C lows in February, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 974 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
26°C average high
Coldest month
February
-7°C average low
Wettest month
July
974 mm a year
Below freezing
4 months
January, February, March and December
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, August and September
Residents
11,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Elmira and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Elmira hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Elmira 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
18°
±3°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
20° 11°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
15°
±3°
Tue
Cloudy
16°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
15° 10°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
15° 10°
±4°
Fri
Partly cloudy
19°
±4°
Sat
Mostly clear
20°
±4°
Sun
Partly cloudy
21°
±4°
Mon
Cloudy
20°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
19° 12°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
15° 11°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
14°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
15°
±6°

Elmira, Ontario is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 26°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around -7°C), with roughly 974 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Elmira right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Elmira climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
-5°
Feb
-7°
Mar
-4°
Apr
13°
May
20°
Jun
24°
13°
Jul
26°
15°
Aug
24°
14°
Sep
22°
12°
Oct
15°
Nov
Dec
-3°

Which forecast is most accurate in Elmira?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
American logo
American ★ Best
86
/100rank #1
91±0.5°C97±1.6 km/t7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
EC
Env. Canada
84
/100rank #2
86±0.8°C92±4.0 km/t7687% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
European logo
European
84
/100rank #3
93±0.4°C95±2.3 km/t6581% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1304 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°16° to 19°±34%13% to 47% chance
Tomorrow±1°19° to 20°±23%43% to 66% chance
Mon±3°14° to 17°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±2°15° to 17°±6%4% to 10% chance
Wed±2°14° to 16°±13%20% to 33% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Elmira

today, local time
Sunrise
07:06
Sunset
19:24
Daylight
12h 18m

Common questions

What's the weather in Elmira today?
On this page we show what Env. Canada, European, American each forecast for Elmira today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Elmira today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Env. Canada, European, American for Elmira and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Elmira?
Over the last 30 days, the American model has been the most accurate for Elmira (CheckWeather Score 86/100), ahead of the Env. Canada at 84. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Elmira?
July is typically the warmest month in Elmira, with average highs around 26°C.
How cold does Elmira get?
The coldest month in Elmira is February, when overnight lows average about -7°C.
How much rain does Elmira get?
Elmira sees roughly 974 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More CA weather