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CheckWeather CANorfolk County
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Norfolk County weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 19° in Norfolk County today. Tomorrow looks rain around 20°, with a 88% chance of rain.

19°13°
20°12°
16°10°
17°11°
15°11°
17°10°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±3°Mondaysplit ±4°Tuesdaysplit ±3°Wednesdaysplit ±2°Thursdaysplit ±3°
Env. CanadaGEM model
20°
Light drizzle
Today 20°·Low 12°·Rain 29%
EuropeanECMWF
19°
Light rain
Today 19°·Low 13°·Rain 73%
AmericanNOAA GFS
19°
Cloudy
Today 19°·Low 13°·Rain 32%
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Norfolk County weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Norfolk County swings 31°C across the year, from 27°C highs in July to -4°C lows in January, and June is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1036 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 72 days a year at 25°C or above, 7 of them at 30°C or above, 121 frost nights, and rain on 139 days.

Warmest month
July
27°C average high
Coldest month
January
-4°C average low
Wettest month
June
1036 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, August, September and October
Residents
61,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
97/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
72 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
121 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
139 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Norfolk County’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Norfolk County and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Norfolk County hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Norfolk County 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
19° 13°
models agree
Tomorrow
Rain
20° 12°
±3°
Mon
Cloudy
16° 10°
±4°
Tue
Cloudy
17° 11°
±3°
Wed
Drizzle
15° 11°
±2°
Thu
Drizzle
17° 10°
±3°
Fri
Cloudy
19°
±4°
Sat
Mostly clear
21°
±4°
Sun
Mostly clear
21°
±3°
Mon
Cloudy
19° 10°
models agree
Tue
Light rain
20° 13°
models agree
Wed
Light rain
18° 13°
±3°
Thu
Partly cloudy
17° 11°
±3°
Fri
Mostly clear
16°
±4°

Norfolk County, Ontario is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 27°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around -4°C), with roughly 1036 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Norfolk County right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Norfolk County climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
-4°
Feb
-4°
Mar
-2°
Apr
14°
May
21°
Jun
25°
15°
Jul
27°
17°
Aug
25°
16°
Sep
23°
14°
Oct
16°
Nov
Dec
-2°

Which forecast is most accurate in Norfolk County?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
97
/100rank #1
94±0.3°C97±1.5 km/t100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
84
/100rank #2
92±0.4°C96±1.8 km/t6581% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
EC
Env. Canada
82
/100rank #3
85±0.8°C94±3.0 km/t7184% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1304 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°19° to 20°±44%29% to 73% chance
Tomorrow±3°18° to 21°±34%54% to 88% chance
Mon±4°15° to 19°±5%1% to 6% chance
Tue±3°16° to 19°±4%10% to 14% chance
Wed±2°14° to 16°±1%29% to 30% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Norfolk County

today, local time
Sunrise
07:05
Sunset
19:24
Daylight
12h 19m

Common questions

What's the weather in Norfolk County today?
On this page we show what Env. Canada, European, American each forecast for Norfolk County today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Norfolk County today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Env. Canada, European, American for Norfolk County and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Norfolk County?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Norfolk County (CheckWeather Score 97/100), ahead of the American at 84. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Norfolk County?
July is typically the warmest month in Norfolk County, with average highs around 27°C.
How cold does Norfolk County get?
The coldest month in Norfolk County is January, when overnight lows average about -4°C.
How much rain does Norfolk County get?
Norfolk County sees roughly 1036 mm of precipitation a year, with June usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More CA weather