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CheckWeather CAWaterdown
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 3°C

Waterdown weather

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Cloudy,rain likely tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Waterdown's high today between 16° and 19°, a 3° split. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 20°, with a 74% chance of rain.

18°11°
20°13°
14°11°
15°12°
15°12°
16°12°
Todaysplit ±3°Tomorrowsplit ±2°Mondaysplit ±2°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
Env. CanadaGEM model
19°
Light drizzle
Today 19°·Low 11°·Rain 14%
EuropeanECMWF
16°
Cloudy
Today 16°·Low 13°·Rain 47%
AmericanNOAA GFS
18°
Cloudy
Today 18°·Low 11°·Rain 14%
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Waterdown weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Waterdown swings 33°C across the year, from 27°C highs in July to -6°C lows in February, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1003 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 73 days a year at 25°C or above, 15 of them at 30°C or above, 123 frost nights, and rain on 130 days.

Warmest month
July
27°C average high
Coldest month
February
-6°C average low
Wettest month
July
1003 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, August and September
Residents
24,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
81/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
73 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
123 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
130 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Waterdown’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Waterdown and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Waterdown hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Waterdown 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
18° 11°
±3°
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
20° 13°
±2°
Mon
Cloudy
14° 11°
±2°
Tue
Light drizzle
15° 12°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
15° 12°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
16° 12°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
19° 11°
±5°
Sat
Mostly clear
19°
±4°
Sun
Mostly clear
20° 10°
±5°
Mon
Cloudy
19° 10°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
20° 12°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
16° 12°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
16° 10°
±3°
Fri
Cloudy
16°
±5°

Waterdown, Ontario is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 27°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around -6°C), with roughly 1003 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Waterdown right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Waterdown climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
-4°
Feb
-6°
Mar
-2°
Apr
13°
May
20°
Jun
24°
15°
Jul
27°
17°
Aug
25°
16°
Sep
23°
14°
Oct
17°
Nov
Dec
-1°

Which forecast is most accurate in Waterdown?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
81
/100rank #1
86±0.8°C96±1.9 km/t6581% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
78
/100rank #2
87±0.7°C93±3.3 km/t5877% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
American logo
American
73
/100rank #3
91±0.5°C95±2.5 km/t3665% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1304 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°16° to 19°±33%14% to 47% chance
Tomorrow±2°18° to 21°±31%43% to 74% chance
Mon±2°14° to 16°±4%0% to 4% chance
Tue±2°14° to 16°±9%4% to 13% chance
Wed±1°15° to 16°±11%22% to 33% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Waterdown

today, local time
Sunrise
07:03
Sunset
19:22
Daylight
12h 19m

Common questions

What's the weather in Waterdown today?
On this page we show what Env. Canada, European, American each forecast for Waterdown today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Waterdown today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Env. Canada, European, American for Waterdown and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Waterdown?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Waterdown (CheckWeather Score 81/100), ahead of the Env. Canada at 78. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Waterdown?
July is typically the warmest month in Waterdown, with average highs around 27°C.
How cold does Waterdown get?
The coldest month in Waterdown is February, when overnight lows average about -6°C.
How much rain does Waterdown get?
Waterdown sees roughly 1003 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More CA weather