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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Christchurch (Chch) weather

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Cloudy,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 18° in Christchurch today. Tomorrow looks showers around 13°, with a 100% chance of rain.

18°
13°
17°
13°
11°
16°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±3°Tuesdaysplit ±5°Wednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±3°
EuropeanECMWF
18°
Cloudy
Today 18°·Low ·Rain 4%
AmericanNOAA GFS
18°
Cloudy
Today 18°·Low ·Rain 3%
GermanDWD ICON
19°
Cloudy
Today 19°·Low ·Rain 3%
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Christchurch weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Christchurch swings 18°C across the year, from 22°C highs in February to 4°C lows in July, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 654 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
February
22°C average high
Coldest month
July
4°C average low
Wettest month
July
654 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
419,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Christchurch and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Christchurch in 3D: the weather on the streets, hour by hour

Rain, sun and real shadows drawn on a 3D map of Christchurch, 48 hours ahead. Drag the timeline, pick what you are doing or where you are going, and read the verdict for that hour.Full screen ↗

What are you doing?

Where are you going?

Christchurch hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

Loading the three models…

Christchurch 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
18°
models agree
Tomorrow
Showers
13°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
17°
±3°
Tue
Drizzle
13°
±5°
Wed
Light drizzle
11°
models agree
Thu
Mostly clear
16°
±3°
Fri
Cloudy
13°
±3°
Sat
Cloudy
17°
models agree
Sun
Heavy drizzle
16°
±4°
Mon
Heavy drizzle
11°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
16°
±4°
Wed
Light drizzle
18°
±4°
Thu
Partly cloudy
19°
±8°
Fri
Cloudy
17°
±5°

Christchurch, New Zealand. Often shortened to Chch. Below we compare what European, American, German forecast for Christchurch right now and flag exactly where they disagree, then break down Christchurch's weather month by month and which forecast model has been most accurate here.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

Christchurch weather by month

what to expect in Christchurch through the year

Here is Christchurch's typical weather in each month: the average daytime high and overnight low in °C, how each month feels, and the wettest month marked. Use it to plan any trip to Christchurch by season.

Jan
21°
14°
Mild
Feb
22°
14°
Warm
Mar
19°
11°
Mild
Apr
17°
10°
Mild
May
14°
Cool
Jun
12°
Cool
Jul
11°
Cool
Wettest
Aug
12°
Cool
Sep
15°
Mild
Oct
16°
Mild
Nov
18°
10°
Mild
Dec
21°
13°
Mild

What Christchurch's weather is like through the year

Christchurch runs from warm summers, with February highs near 22°C, to cold winters, when July lows sit around 4°C (a swing of about 18°C across the year). July is usually the wettest month, and Christchurch sees roughly 654 mm of precipitation annually.

Best time to visit Christchurch

The most comfortable time to visit Christchurch is usually January, February, March and April, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest July rain is behind you.

Which forecast is most accurate in Christchurch?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
88
/100rank #1
89±0.6°C95±2.3 km/t8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
78
/100rank #2
90±0.6°C94±3.1 km/t5374% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American logo
American
74
/100rank #3
80±1.1°C92±3.8 km/t5374% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 244 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Bottom line: over the last 30 days the European model has been the most accurate forecast for Christchurch, scoring 88/100 on our CheckWeather Score, ahead of the German at 78. See the full NZ accuracy scoreboard for exactly how every model is tested.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°18° to 19°±1%3% to 4% chance
Tomorrow±1°12° to 13°±14%86% to 100% chance
Mon±3°16° to 19°±15%0% to 15% chance
Tue±5°11° to 17°±6%91% to 97% chance
Wed±2°10° to 12°±20%35% to 55% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Christchurch

today, local time
Sunrise
06:25
Sunset
18:22
Daylight
11h 57m

Common questions

What's the weather in Christchurch today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Christchurch today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Christchurch today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Christchurch and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Christchurch?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Christchurch (CheckWeather Score 88/100), ahead of the German at 78. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Christchurch?
February is typically the warmest month in Christchurch, with average highs around 22°C.
How cold does Christchurch get?
The coldest month in Christchurch is July, when overnight lows average about 4°C.
How much rain does Christchurch get?
Christchurch sees roughly 654 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.
When is the best time to visit Christchurch?
The most comfortable time to visit Christchurch is usually January, February, March and April, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest July rain is behind you.
Does it snow in Christchurch?
Rarely - Christchurch very seldom sees overnight lows drop below freezing, so lasting snow is unusual.

Nearby

More NZ weather