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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Wellington (Welly) weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 15° in Wellington today. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 13°, with a 86% chance of rain.

15°
13°
14°
13°
10°
13°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
15°
Light drizzle
Today 15°·Low ·Rain 49%
AmericanNOAA GFS
15°
Light drizzle
Today 15°·Low ·Rain 0%
GermanDWD ICON
15°
Fog
Today 15°·Low ·Rain 5%
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Wellington weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Wellington swings 12°C across the year, from 20°C highs in January to 8°C lows in July, and April is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 943 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
20°C average high
Coldest month
July
8°C average low
Wettest month
April
943 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and November
Residents
382,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Wellington and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Wellington in 3D: the weather on the streets, hour by hour

Rain, sun and real shadows drawn on a 3D map of Wellington, 48 hours ahead. Drag the timeline, pick what you are doing or where you are going, and read the verdict for that hour.Full screen ↗

What are you doing?

Where are you going?

Wellington hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

Loading the three models…

Wellington 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
15°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
13°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
14°
models agree
Tue
Rain
13°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
10°
models agree
Thu
Clear
13°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
12°
±3°
Sat
Cloudy
14°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
14°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
10°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
13°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
15° 11°
±3°
Thu
Cloudy
15° 11°
±2°
Fri
Cloudy
14° 10°
models agree

Wellington, New Zealand. Often shortened to Welly. Below we compare what European, American, German forecast for Wellington right now and flag exactly where they disagree, then break down Wellington's weather month by month and which forecast model has been most accurate here.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

Wellington weather by month

what to expect in Wellington through the year

Here is Wellington's typical weather in each month: the average daytime high and overnight low in °C, how each month feels, and the wettest month marked. Use it to plan any trip to Wellington by season.

Jan
20°
15°
Mild
Feb
20°
15°
Mild
Mar
18°
13°
Mild
Apr
17°
12°
Mild
Wettest
May
15°
11°
Mild
Jun
13°
Cool
Jul
12°
Cool
Aug
12°
Cool
Sep
14°
10°
Cool
Oct
15°
10°
Mild
Nov
16°
12°
Mild
Dec
18°
14°
Mild

What Wellington's weather is like through the year

Wellington runs from warm summers, with January highs near 20°C, to cool winters, when July lows sit around 8°C (a swing of about 12°C across the year). April is usually the wettest month, and Wellington sees roughly 943 mm of precipitation annually.

Best time to visit Wellington

The most comfortable time to visit Wellington is usually January, February, March and November, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest April rain is behind you.

Which forecast is most accurate in Wellington?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
American logo
American ★ Best
88
/100rank #1
90±0.6°C93±3.6 km/t8290% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
European logo
European
87
/100rank #2
94±0.3°C91±4.4 km/t7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
85
/100rank #3
92±0.4°C87±6.5 km/t7687% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 244 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Bottom line: over the last 30 days the American model has been the most accurate forecast for Wellington, scoring 88/100 on our CheckWeather Score, ahead of the European at 87. See the full NZ accuracy scoreboard for exactly how every model is tested.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°15° to 15°±49%0% to 49% chance
Tomorrow±1°13° to 14°±16%70% to 86% chance
Mon±1°14° to 14°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±2°12° to 14°±37%61% to 98% chance
Wed±1°9° to 10°±42%30% to 72% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Wellington

today, local time
Sunrise
06:16
Sunset
18:14
Daylight
11h 58m

Common questions

What's the weather in Wellington today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Wellington today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Wellington today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Wellington and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Wellington?
Over the last 30 days, the American model has been the most accurate for Wellington (CheckWeather Score 88/100), ahead of the European at 87. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Wellington?
January is typically the warmest month in Wellington, with average highs around 20°C.
How cold does Wellington get?
The coldest month in Wellington is July, when overnight lows average about 8°C.
How much rain does Wellington get?
Wellington sees roughly 943 mm of precipitation a year, with April usually the wettest month.
When is the best time to visit Wellington?
The most comfortable time to visit Wellington is usually January, February, March and November, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest April rain is behind you.
Does it snow in Wellington?
Rarely - Wellington very seldom sees overnight lows drop below freezing, so lasting snow is unusual.

Nearby

More NZ weather