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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 4°C

Rotorua weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model put Rotorua's high today between 14° and 18°, a 4° split. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 14°, with a 86% chance of rain.

16°
14°
15°
15°
13°
13°
Todaysplit ±4°Tomorrowsplit ±2°Mondaysplit ±3°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
15°
Light drizzle
Today 15°·Low ·Rain 33%
AmericanNOAA GFS
18°
Light drizzle
Today 18°·Low ·Rain 29%
GermanDWD ICON
14°
Fog
Today 14°·Low 10°·Rain 0%
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Rotorua weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Rotorua swings 18°C across the year, from 22°C highs in January to 4°C lows in August, and January is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1490 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
22°C average high
Coldest month
August
4°C average low
Wettest month
January
1490 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
February, March, April and October
Residents
66,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Rotorua and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Rotorua hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Rotorua 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
16°
±4°
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
14°
±2°
Mon
Cloudy
15°
±3°
Tue
Light drizzle
15°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
13°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
13°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
14°
±4°
Sat
Light drizzle
14°
±3°
Sun
Light rain
13°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
14°
±5°
Tue
Cloudy
14°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
16°
±2°
Thu
Light drizzle
19° 11°
±3°
Fri
Light drizzle
17°
models agree

Rotorua, New Zealand. Below we compare what European, American, German forecast for Rotorua right now and flag exactly where they disagree, then break down Rotorua's weather month by month and which forecast model has been most accurate here.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

Rotorua weather by month

what to expect in Rotorua through the year

Here is Rotorua's typical weather in each month: the average daytime high and overnight low in °C, how each month feels, and the wettest month marked. Use it to plan any trip to Rotorua by season.

Jan
22°
14°
Warm
Wettest
Feb
22°
14°
Warm
Mar
20°
11°
Mild
Apr
18°
11°
Mild
May
14°
Cool
Jun
13°
Cool
Jul
12°
Cool
Aug
12°
Cool
Sep
15°
Mild
Oct
17°
Mild
Nov
19°
10°
Mild
Dec
22°
13°
Warm

What Rotorua's weather is like through the year

Rotorua runs from warm summers, with January highs near 22°C, to cold winters, when August lows sit around 4°C (a swing of about 18°C across the year). January is usually the wettest month, and Rotorua sees roughly 1490 mm of precipitation annually.

Best time to visit Rotorua

The most comfortable time to visit Rotorua is usually February, March, April and October, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest January rain is behind you.

Which forecast is most accurate in Rotorua?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
97
/100rank #1
94±0.3°C96±1.8 km/t100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
92
/100rank #2
92±0.5°C95±2.7 km/t8994% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American logo
American
81
/100rank #3
79±1.2°C81±9.3 km/t8290% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 244 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Bottom line: over the last 30 days the European model has been the most accurate forecast for Rotorua, scoring 97/100 on our CheckWeather Score, ahead of the German at 92. See the full NZ accuracy scoreboard for exactly how every model is tested.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±4°14° to 18°±33%0% to 33% chance
Tomorrow±2°13° to 15°±81%5% to 86% chance
Mon±3°13° to 17°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tuemodels agree15° to 15°±59%10% to 69% chance
Wed±1°12° to 14°±15%53% to 68% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Rotorua

today, local time
Sunrise
06:10
Sunset
18:08
Daylight
11h 58m

Common questions

What's the weather in Rotorua today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Rotorua today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Rotorua today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Rotorua and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Rotorua?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Rotorua (CheckWeather Score 97/100), ahead of the German at 92. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Rotorua?
January is typically the warmest month in Rotorua, with average highs around 22°C.
How cold does Rotorua get?
The coldest month in Rotorua is August, when overnight lows average about 4°C.
How much rain does Rotorua get?
Rotorua sees roughly 1490 mm of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.
When is the best time to visit Rotorua?
The most comfortable time to visit Rotorua is usually February, March, April and October, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest January rain is behind you.
Does it snow in Rotorua?
Rarely - Rotorua very seldom sees overnight lows drop below freezing, so lasting snow is unusual.

Nearby

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