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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Alexandria weather

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Light drizzle,cooler tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 86° in Alexandria today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 80°, with a 4% chance of rain.

86°72°
80°65°
86°69°
73°64°
67°61°
64°59°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaysplit ±6°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±5°Wednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
84°
Light drizzle
Today 84°·Low 73°·Rain 12%
AmericanNOAA GFS
87°
Cloudy
Today 87°·Low 73°·Rain 12%
EuropeanECMWF
86°
Drizzle
Today 86°·Low 72°·Rain 94%
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Alexandria weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Alexandria weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Alexandria swings 56°F across the year, from 89°F highs in July to 33°F lows in January, and December is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 47 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
89°F average high
Coldest month
January
33°F average low
Wettest month
December
47 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
3 months
April, May and October
Residents
159,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Alexandria and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Alexandria hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Alexandria 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
86° 72°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
80° 65°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
86° 69°
±6°
Mon
Light drizzle
73° 64°
models agree
Tue
Heavy drizzle
67° 61°
±5°
Wed
Light drizzle
64° 59°
models agree
Thu
Heavy drizzle
66° 59°
±7°
Fri
Light drizzle
71° 57°
±7°
Sat
Light drizzle
73° 56°
±5°
Sun
Light drizzle
74° 56°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
75° 58°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
78° 60°
models agree
Wed
Light rain
77° 64°
±10°
Thu
Clear
73° 57°
±6°

Alexandria, Virginia (VA) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 89°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 33°F), with roughly 47 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Alexandria right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Alexandria climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
48°
33°
Feb
52°
34°
Mar
57°
38°
Apr
70°
49°
May
74°
55°
Jun
85°
63°
Jul
89°
70°
Aug
86°
67°
Sep
79°
62°
Oct
70°
50°
Nov
58°
41°
Dec
49°
34°

Which forecast is most accurate in Alexandria?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
88
/100rank #1
88±1.2°F97±0.9 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
67
/100rank #2
83±1.7°F95±1.6 mph2961% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°84° to 87°±82%12% to 94% chance
Tomorrow±3°79° to 81°±2%2% to 4% chance
Sun±6°83° to 89°±12%49% to 61% chance
Mon±2°72° to 74°±11%49% to 60% chance
Tue±5°65° to 70°±13%39% to 52% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Alexandria

today, local time
Sunrise
06:52
Sunset
19:11
Daylight
12h 19m

Common questions

What's the weather in Alexandria today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Alexandria today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Alexandria today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Alexandria and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Alexandria?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Alexandria (CheckWeather Score 88/100), ahead of the American at 67. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Alexandria?
July is typically the warmest month in Alexandria, with average highs around 89°F.
How cold does Alexandria get?
The coldest month in Alexandria is January, when overnight lows average about 33°F.
How much rain does Alexandria get?
Alexandria sees roughly 47 in of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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