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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Chicago weather

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Drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 70° in Chicago today. Tomorrow looks rain around 74°, with a 98% chance of rain.

70°65°
74°63°
70°64°
63°59°
62°57°
62°57°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±7°Sundaymodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
69°
Drizzle
Today 69°·Low 65°·Rain 26%
AmericanNOAA GFS
69°
Cloudy
Today 69°·Low 63°·Rain 26%
EuropeanECMWF
72°
Light drizzle
Today 72°·Low 66°·Rain 75%
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Chicago weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Chicago weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Chicago swings 57°F across the year, from 80°F highs in July to 23°F lows in January, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 45 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
80°F average high
Coldest month
January
23°F average low
Wettest month
July
45 in a year
Below freezing
3 months
January, February and December
Comfortable
3 months
May, September and October
Residents
2.7 million
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Chicago and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Chicago in 3D: the weather on the streets, hour by hour

Rain, sun and real shadows drawn on a 3D map of Chicago, 48 hours ahead. Drag the timeline, pick what you are doing or where you are going, and read the verdict for that hour.Full screen ↗

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Chicago hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Chicago 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
70° 65°
models agree
Tomorrow
Rain
74° 63°
±7°
Sun
Rain
70° 64°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
63° 59°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
62° 57°
models agree
Wed
Partly cloudy
62° 57°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
64° 58°
models agree
Fri
Partly cloudy
66° 60°
models agree
Sat
Mostly clear
69° 58°
±8°
Sun
Cloudy
71° 56°
±8°
Mon
Light drizzle
69° 55°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
60° 53°
±17°
Wed
Light drizzle
61° 49°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
67° 50°
models agree

Chicago, Illinois (IL). Below we compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Chicago right now and flag exactly where they disagree, then break down Chicago's weather month by month and which forecast model has been most accurate here.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Chicago weather by month

what to expect in Chicago through the year

Here is Chicago's typical weather in each month: the average daytime high and overnight low in °F, how each month feels, and the wettest month marked. Use it to plan any trip to Chicago by season.

Jan
34°
23°
Cold
Feb
43°
27°
Cool
Mar
47°
32°
Cool
Apr
59°
41°
Mild
May
68°
51°
Mild
Jun
79°
62°
Warm
Jul
80°
65°
Warm
Wettest
Aug
80°
65°
Warm
Sep
75°
61°
Warm
Oct
64°
49°
Mild
Nov
50°
38°
Cool
Dec
40°
30°
Cool

What Chicago's weather is like through the year

Chicago runs from warm summers, with July highs near 80°F, to cold winters, when January lows sit around 23°F (a swing of about 57°F across the year). July is usually the wettest month, and Chicago sees roughly 45 inches of precipitation annually. Overnight lows stay below freezing across 3 months (January, February and December), so Chicago sees regular winter snowfall.

Best time to visit Chicago

The most comfortable time to visit Chicago is usually May, September and October, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 60-78°F range and the heaviest July rain is behind you.

Which forecast is most accurate in Chicago?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
89
/100rank #1
84±1.6°F96±1.3 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
68
/100rank #2
82±1.8°F92±2.4 mph3665% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Bottom line: over the last 30 days the European model has been the most accurate forecast for Chicago, scoring 89/100 on our CheckWeather Score, ahead of the American at 68. See the full US accuracy scoreboard for exactly how every model is tested.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°69° to 72°±49%26% to 75% chance
Tomorrow±7°72° to 78°±41%57% to 98% chance
Sun±1°69° to 70°±10%88% to 98% chance
Mon±2°63° to 64°±3%40% to 43% chance
Tue±4°61° to 65°±23%14% to 37% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Chicago

today, local time
Sunrise
06:33
Sunset
18:54
Daylight
12h 21m

Common questions

What's the weather in Chicago today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Chicago today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Chicago today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Chicago and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Chicago?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Chicago (CheckWeather Score 89/100), ahead of the American at 68. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Chicago?
July is typically the warmest month in Chicago, with average highs around 80°F.
How cold does Chicago get?
The coldest month in Chicago is January, when overnight lows average about 23°F.
How much rain does Chicago get?
Chicago sees roughly 45 in of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.
When is the best time to visit Chicago?
The most comfortable time to visit Chicago is usually May, September and October, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 60-78°F range and the heaviest July rain is behind you.
Does it snow in Chicago?
Yes - overnight lows fall below freezing across 3 months (January, February and December) in Chicago, so winter snowfall is common.

Nearby

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