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Forecast confidence: Low · models disagree by 9°F

Ames weather

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Rain,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Ames's high today between 73° and 83°, a 9° split. Tomorrow looks showers around 79°, with a 68% chance of rain.

78°64°
79°66°
66°61°
61°56°
61°52°
66°48°
Todaysplit ±9°Tomorrowsplit ±5°Sundaymodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±5°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
77°
Rain
Today 77°·Low 65°·Rain 33%
AmericanNOAA GFS
73°
Light drizzle
Today 73°·Low 65°·Rain 33%
EuropeanECMWF
83°
Thunderstorm
Today 83°·Low 64°·Rain 100%
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Ames weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Ames weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Ames swings 67°F across the year, from 83°F highs in June to 16°F lows in January, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 36 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
June
83°F average high
Coldest month
January
16°F average low
Wettest month
July
36 in a year
Below freezing
4 months
January, February, March and December
Comfortable
3 months
April, May and October
Residents
65,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Ames and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Ames hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Ames 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Rain
78° 64°
±9°
Tomorrow
Showers
79° 66°
±5°
Sun
Heavy drizzle
66° 61°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
61° 56°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
61° 52°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
66° 48°
±5°
Thu
Partly cloudy
67° 52°
±6°
Fri
Partly cloudy
65° 55°
±6°
Sat
Partly cloudy
69° 57°
±7°
Sun
Drizzle
65° 58°
±5°
Mon
Light drizzle
63° 53°
±8°
Tue
Mostly clear
64° 49°
±5°
Wed
Partly cloudy
66° 46°
±5°
Thu
Cloudy
74° 51°
models agree

Ames, Iowa (IA) is at its warmest in Jun (average highs near 83°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 16°F), with roughly 36 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Ames right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Ames climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
29°
16°
Feb
44°
22°
Mar
49°
29°
Apr
62°
41°
May
75°
53°
Jun
83°
64°
Jul
82°
64°
Aug
82°
65°
Sep
79°
59°
Oct
66°
48°
Nov
50°
34°
Dec
39°
26°

Which forecast is most accurate in Ames?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
96
/100rank #1
96±0.4°F96±1.2 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
70
/100rank #2
89±1.1°F96±1.1 mph2961% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±9°73° to 83°±67%33% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±5°76° to 81°±38%30% to 68% chance
Sun±3°64° to 67°±4%36% to 40% chance
Mon±2°60° to 62°±13%40% to 53% chance
Tue±4°59° to 63°±1%18% to 19% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Ames

today, local time
Sunrise
06:57
Sunset
19:18
Daylight
12h 21m

Common questions

What's the weather in Ames today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Ames today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Ames today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Ames and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Ames?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Ames (CheckWeather Score 96/100), ahead of the American at 70. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Ames?
June is typically the warmest month in Ames, with average highs around 83°F.
How cold does Ames get?
The coldest month in Ames is January, when overnight lows average about 16°F.
How much rain does Ames get?
Ames sees roughly 36 in of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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