Skip to main content
One weather site to rule them all
checkweather.io
CheckWeather USAmherst
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Amherst weather

Loading live data…

Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 71° in Amherst today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 68°, with a 29% chance of rain.

71°58°
68°52°
65°56°
61°52°
58°50°
61°49°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaymodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±10°Wednesdaysplit ±8°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
71°
Light drizzle
Today 71°·Low 58°·Rain 3%
AmericanNOAA GFS
72°
Cloudy
Today 72°·Low 58°·Rain 3%
EuropeanECMWF
69°
Cloudy
Today 69°·Low 59°·Rain 51%
CheckWeather.io on iPhoneFree. No ads, no account.

Amherst weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Amherst…

Amherst weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Amherst swings 56°F across the year, from 81°F highs in July to 25°F lows in February, and April is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 45 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
81°F average high
Coldest month
February
25°F average low
Wettest month
April
45 in a year
Below freezing
4 months
January, February, March and December
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, August and September
Residents
122,000
share this forecast

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Amherst and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Amherst hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

Loading the three models…

Amherst 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
71° 58°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
68° 52°
models agree
Sun
Rain
65° 56°
models agree
Mon
Partly cloudy
61° 52°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
58° 50°
±10°
Wed
Light drizzle
61° 49°
±8°
Thu
Drizzle
65° 51°
±8°
Fri
Cloudy
67° 51°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
70° 51°
±5°
Sun
Mostly clear
71° 53°
±8°
Mon
Cloudy
72° 55°
±13°
Tue
Cloudy
74° 59°
±12°
Wed
Drizzle
65° 55°
±7°
Thu
Light drizzle
62° 53°
±8°

Amherst, New York (NY) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 81°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 25°F), with roughly 45 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Amherst right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Amherst climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
36°
26°
Feb
41°
25°
Mar
45°
30°
Apr
58°
39°
May
69°
49°
Jun
76°
59°
Jul
81°
64°
Aug
77°
61°
Sep
74°
57°
Oct
61°
48°
Nov
49°
36°
Dec
41°
30°

Which forecast is most accurate in Amherst?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
96±0.4°F98±0.6 mph7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
74
/100rank #2
85±1.5°F96±1.2 mph4771% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
Loading ratings…
AmericanNOAA GFS
Loading ratings…
EuropeanECMWF
Loading ratings…

One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°69° to 72°±48%3% to 51% chance
Tomorrow±2°67° to 69°±14%15% to 29% chance
Sun±2°64° to 66°±28%64% to 92% chance
Mon±1°61° to 62°models agree2% to 2% chance
Tue±10°52° to 62°±8%8% to 16% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Amherst

today, local time
Sunrise
06:58
Sunset
19:19
Daylight
12h 21m

Common questions

What's the weather in Amherst today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Amherst today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Amherst today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Amherst and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Amherst?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Amherst (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the American at 74. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Amherst?
July is typically the warmest month in Amherst, with average highs around 81°F.
How cold does Amherst get?
The coldest month in Amherst is February, when overnight lows average about 25°F.
How much rain does Amherst get?
Amherst sees roughly 45 in of precipitation a year, with April usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More US weather