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CheckWeather USAnn Arbor
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Ann Arbor weather

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Cloudy,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 73° in Ann Arbor today. Tomorrow looks rain around 65°, with a 98% chance of rain.

73°56°
65°57°
67°57°
63°54°
63°51°
58°53°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaysplit ±7°Mondaysplit ±6°Tuesdaysplit ±6°Wednesdaysplit ±6°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
73°
Cloudy
Today 73°·Low 55°·Rain 4%
AmericanNOAA GFS
74°
Cloudy
Today 74°·Low 55°·Rain 4%
EuropeanECMWF
73°
Cloudy
Today 73°·Low 57°·Rain 11%
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Ann Arbor weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Ann Arbor weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Ann Arbor swings 58°F across the year, from 81°F highs in July to 23°F lows in January, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 35 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
81°F average high
Coldest month
January
23°F average low
Wettest month
July
35 in a year
Below freezing
4 months
January, February, March and December
Comfortable
4 months
April, May, September and October
Residents
117,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Ann Arbor and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Ann Arbor hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Ann Arbor 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
73° 56°
models agree
Tomorrow
Rain
65° 57°
models agree
Sun
Rain
67° 57°
±7°
Mon
Cloudy
63° 54°
±6°
Tue
Cloudy
63° 51°
±6°
Wed
Light drizzle
58° 53°
±6°
Thu
Light drizzle
62° 54°
models agree
Fri
Mostly clear
67° 54°
±9°
Sat
Mostly clear
69° 50°
±6°
Sun
Mostly clear
70° 51°
±7°
Mon
Cloudy
69° 52°
models agree
Tue
Light rain
64° 52°
±5°
Wed
Drizzle
58° 48°
models agree
Thu
Partly cloudy
64° 46°
models agree

Ann Arbor, Michigan (MI) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 81°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 23°F), with roughly 35 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Ann Arbor right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Ann Arbor climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
34°
23°
Feb
43°
25°
Mar
47°
29°
Apr
60°
39°
May
71°
49°
Jun
79°
59°
Jul
81°
63°
Aug
79°
61°
Sep
75°
57°
Oct
62°
46°
Nov
49°
36°
Dec
40°
30°

Which forecast is most accurate in Ann Arbor?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
96
/100rank #1
93±0.7°F96±1.2 mph100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
83
/100rank #2
85±1.5°F95±1.7 mph7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°73° to 74°±7%4% to 11% chance
Tomorrow±2°64° to 65°±37%61% to 98% chance
Sun±7°64° to 71°±4%85% to 89% chance
Mon±6°61° to 67°±5%11% to 16% chance
Tue±6°60° to 66°±6%14% to 20% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Ann Arbor

today, local time
Sunrise
07:18
Sunset
19:39
Daylight
12h 21m

Common questions

What's the weather in Ann Arbor today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Ann Arbor today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Ann Arbor today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Ann Arbor and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Ann Arbor?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Ann Arbor (CheckWeather Score 96/100), ahead of the American at 83. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Ann Arbor?
July is typically the warmest month in Ann Arbor, with average highs around 81°F.
How cold does Ann Arbor get?
The coldest month in Ann Arbor is January, when overnight lows average about 23°F.
How much rain does Ann Arbor get?
Ann Arbor sees roughly 35 in of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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