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Every US forecast, compared
CheckWeather US›Arlington

Arlington weather

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NWSNational Blend (NBM)
71°
Clear
Feels 72° · Wind 2 mph · Humidity 57%
AmericanNOAA GFS
74°
Clear
Feels 74° · Wind 3 mph · Humidity 49%
EuropeanECMWF
70°
Clear
Feels 70° · Wind 4 mph · Humidity 59%

Latest for Arlington: NWS (National Blend (NBM)): 71° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 74° Clear · European (ECMWF): 70° Clear.

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Arlington and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

7-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split

Arlington, VA is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 89°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 32°F), with roughly 47 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Arlington right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

Arlington climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
48°
32°
Feb
52°
33°
Mar
57°
38°
Apr
69°
48°
May
74°
54°
Jun
85°
63°
Jul
89°
70°
Aug
85°
67°
Sep
79°
62°
Oct
69°
50°
Nov
58°
41°
Dec
48°
34°

Which forecast is most accurate in the US?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
Behind Apple Weather, Windy
88
/100rank #1
85±1.5°F96±1.2 mph8592% hitECMWF — European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
Behind Windy & many free apps
74
/100rank #2
82±1.8°F92±2.6 mph5374% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 40 cities. Lower error means a higher score. The apps you know (AccuWeather, Apple Weather, The Weather Channel) are built on these models.

Common questions

What's the weather in Arlington today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Arlington today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Arlington today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Arlington and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Arlington?
No single model is always right. NWS, American, European each run their own physics, so we line all three up: when they agree the Arlington forecast is reliable, and when they split you should expect surprises. See our tested US accuracy scoreboard for how the models compare.
What is the warmest month in Arlington?
Jul is typically the warmest month in Arlington, with average highs around 89°F.
How cold does Arlington get?
The coldest month in Arlington is Jan, when overnight lows average about 32°F.
How much rain does Arlington get?
Arlington sees roughly 47 in of precipitation a year, with Jul usually the wettest month.

The forecasts Americans check

The two biggest apps keep their model a secret, so we can't show their numbers, only link you to them. The National Weather Service is public, so its data sits right in the comparison above.

NWSNational Weather Service
Open model · shown above ✓AWAccuWeather
Closed model · open ↗↗TWCThe Weather Channel
Closed model · open ↗↗

Nearby

RosslynBaileys CrossroadsFoggy BottomGeorgetownSeven CornersGlover ParkLake BarcroftFalls Church

More US weather

Most accurate forecastUS rain radarAll US citiesHoliday weather abroadThe European model vs the American model: ECMWF vs GFSThe national forecast models, explained: NBM, UKMO, GEM and ACCESS