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CheckWeather USAshburn
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 5°F

Ashburn weather

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Heavy drizzle,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Ashburn's high today between 81° and 87°, a 5° split. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 79°, with a 6% chance of rain.

84°70°
79°62°
84°68°
71°60°
64°58°
61°54°
Todaysplit ±5°Tomorrowmodels agreeSundaysplit ±7°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±4°Wednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
81°
Heavy drizzle
Today 81°·Low 69°·Rain 14%
AmericanNOAA GFS
83°
Cloudy
Today 83°·Low 70°·Rain 14%
EuropeanECMWF
87°
Light drizzle
Today 87°·Low 72°·Rain 69%
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Ashburn weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Ashburn weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Ashburn swings 58°F across the year, from 90°F highs in July to 32°F lows in January, and September is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 40 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
90°F average high
Coldest month
January
32°F average low
Wettest month
September
40 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
3 months
April, May and October
Residents
44,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Ashburn and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Ashburn hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Ashburn 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Heavy drizzle
84° 70°
±5°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
79° 62°
models agree
Sun
Drizzle
84° 68°
±7°
Mon
Drizzle
71° 60°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
64° 58°
±4°
Wed
Heavy drizzle
61° 54°
models agree
Thu
Light rain
64° 55°
±5°
Fri
Drizzle
70° 55°
±8°
Sat
Light drizzle
70° 51°
±5°
Sun
Mostly clear
72° 51°
±6°
Mon
Light drizzle
73° 55°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
76° 56°
models agree
Wed
Light rain
73° 59°
models agree
Thu
Clear
72° 52°
±8°

Ashburn, Virginia (VA) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 90°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 32°F), with roughly 40 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Ashburn right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Ashburn climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
46°
32°
Feb
52°
33°
Mar
57°
37°
Apr
69°
48°
May
75°
54°
Jun
85°
62°
Jul
90°
69°
Aug
87°
66°
Sep
79°
61°
Oct
69°
50°
Nov
57°
40°
Dec
48°
33°

Which forecast is most accurate in Ashburn?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
83
/100rank #1
91±0.9°F96±1.3 mph6581% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
69
/100rank #2
86±1.4°F96±1.4 mph2961% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±5°81° to 87°±55%14% to 69% chance
Tomorrow±3°77° to 80°±4%2% to 6% chance
Sun±7°81° to 88°±23%56% to 79% chance
Mon±4°69° to 73°±9%56% to 65% chance
Tue±4°62° to 66°models agree54% to 54% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Ashburn

today, local time
Sunrise
06:54
Sunset
19:13
Daylight
12h 19m

Common questions

What's the weather in Ashburn today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Ashburn today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Ashburn today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Ashburn and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Ashburn?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Ashburn (CheckWeather Score 83/100), ahead of the American at 69. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Ashburn?
July is typically the warmest month in Ashburn, with average highs around 90°F.
How cold does Ashburn get?
The coldest month in Ashburn is January, when overnight lows average about 32°F.
How much rain does Ashburn get?
Ashburn sees roughly 40 in of precipitation a year, with September usually the wettest month.

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