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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 6°F

Aurora weather

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Light rain,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Aurora's high today between 80° and 86°, a 6° split. Tomorrow looks light rain around 75°, with a 95% chance of rain, and the models disagree, so treat it as uncertain.

83°62°
75°57°
70°53°
73°54°
78°56°
76°57°
Todaysplit ±6°Tomorrowsplit ±9°Sundaysplit ±6°Mondaysplit ±10°Tuesdaysplit ±8°Wednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
80°
Light rain
Today 80°·Low 63°·Rain 44%
AmericanNOAA GFS
86°
Rain
Today 86°·Low 62°·Rain 44%
EuropeanECMWF
82°
Showers
Today 82°·Low 63°·Rain 82%
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Aurora weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Aurora weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Aurora swings 74°F across the year, from 88°F highs in July to 14°F lows in January, and May is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 21 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
88°F average high
Coldest month
January
14°F average low
Wettest month
May
21 in a year
Below freezing
5 months
January, February, March, November and December
Comfortable
2 months
April and October
Residents
359,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Aurora and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Aurora in 3D: the weather on the streets, hour by hour

Rain, sun and real shadows drawn on a 3D map of Aurora, 48 hours ahead. Drag the timeline, pick what you are doing or where you are going, and read the verdict for that hour.Full screen ↗

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Aurora hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Aurora 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light rain
83° 62°
±6°
Tomorrow
Light rain
75° 57°
±9°
Sun
Light drizzle
70° 53°
±6°
Mon
Drizzle
73° 54°
±10°
Tue
Light drizzle
78° 56°
±8°
Wed
Partly cloudy
76° 57°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
78° 58°
models agree
Fri
Partly cloudy
78° 61°
±11°
Sat
Mostly clear
79° 62°
±11°
Sun
Light drizzle
79° 57°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
75° 56°
±7°
Tue
Cloudy
79° 55°
±13°
Wed
Partly cloudy
82° 60°
models agree
Thu
Partly cloudy
85° 62°
models agree

Aurora, Colorado (CO) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 88°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 14°F), with roughly 21 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Aurora right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Aurora climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
35°
14°
Feb
46°
19°
Mar
50°
24°
Apr
62°
35°
May
70°
45°
Jun
82°
56°
Jul
88°
60°
Aug
88°
61°
Sep
82°
53°
Oct
69°
42°
Nov
51°
27°
Dec
48°
26°

Which forecast is most accurate in Aurora?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
87±1.3°F94±1.9 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
80
/100rank #2
89±1.1°F87±4.0 mph6581% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±6°80° to 86°±38%44% to 82% chance
Tomorrow±9°71° to 80°±63%32% to 95% chance
Sun±6°68° to 74°±32%38% to 70% chance
Mon±10°69° to 79°±25%13% to 38% chance
Tue±8°75° to 83°±3%26% to 29% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Aurora

today, local time
Sunrise
06:43
Sunset
19:02
Daylight
12h 19m

Common questions

What's the weather in Aurora today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Aurora today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Aurora today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Aurora and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Aurora?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Aurora (CheckWeather Score 92/100), ahead of the American at 80. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Aurora?
July is typically the warmest month in Aurora, with average highs around 88°F.
How cold does Aurora get?
The coldest month in Aurora is January, when overnight lows average about 14°F.
How much rain does Aurora get?
Aurora sees roughly 21 in of precipitation a year, with May usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More US weather