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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Birmingham weather

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Light rain,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 96° in Birmingham today. Tomorrow looks mostly clear around 96°, with a 65% chance of rain.

96°72°
96°77°
94°74°
94°73°
90°71°
86°71°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaysplit ±5°Mondaysplit ±8°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±10°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
96°
Light rain
Today 96°·Low 73°·Rain 7%
AmericanNOAA GFS
97°
Partly cloudy
Today 97°·Low 71°·Rain 7%
EuropeanECMWF
95°
Light drizzle
Today 95°·Low 72°·Rain 59%
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Birmingham weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Birmingham weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Birmingham swings 53°F across the year, from 91°F highs in August to 38°F lows in January, and September is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 53 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
August
91°F average high
Coldest month
January
38°F average low
Wettest month
September
53 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
February, March, April and October
Residents
196,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Birmingham and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Birmingham hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Birmingham 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light rain
96° 72°
models agree
Tomorrow
Mostly clear
96° 77°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
94° 74°
±5°
Mon
Light drizzle
94° 73°
±8°
Tue
Light drizzle
90° 71°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
86° 71°
±10°
Thu
Mostly clear
82° 70°
±13°
Fri
Mostly clear
82° 66°
±7°
Sat
Mostly clear
82° 64°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
81° 64°
±4°
Mon
Cloudy
82° 65°
±5°
Tue
Showers
75° 63°
±8°
Wed
Partly cloudy
78° 58°
models agree
Thu
Clear
81° 57°
±10°

Birmingham, Alabama (AL) is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 91°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 38°F), with roughly 53 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Birmingham right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Birmingham climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
55°
38°
Feb
63°
44°
Mar
67°
47°
Apr
72°
53°
May
81°
62°
Jun
88°
68°
Jul
89°
72°
Aug
91°
71°
Sep
84°
67°
Oct
76°
56°
Nov
66°
49°
Dec
57°
40°

Which forecast is most accurate in Birmingham?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
96
/100rank #1
97±0.3°F97±1.1 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
65
/100rank #2
87±1.3°F95±1.7 mph1855% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°95° to 97°±52%7% to 59% chance
Tomorrow±1°96° to 97°±54%11% to 65% chance
Sun±5°92° to 97°±48%15% to 63% chance
Mon±8°90° to 98°±12%31% to 43% chance
Tue±4°87° to 91°±40%37% to 77% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Birmingham

today, local time
Sunrise
06:32
Sunset
18:49
Daylight
12h 17m

Common questions

What's the weather in Birmingham today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Birmingham today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Birmingham today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Birmingham and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Birmingham?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Birmingham (CheckWeather Score 96/100), ahead of the American at 65. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Birmingham?
August is typically the warmest month in Birmingham, with average highs around 91°F.
How cold does Birmingham get?
The coldest month in Birmingham is January, when overnight lows average about 38°F.
How much rain does Birmingham get?
Birmingham sees roughly 53 in of precipitation a year, with September usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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