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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 7°F

Bozeman weather

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Rain,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Bozeman's high today between 68° and 76°, a 7° split. Tomorrow looks light rain around 57°, with a 100% chance of rain.

71°53°
57°51°
65°48°
72°48°
73°51°
76°53°
Todaysplit ±7°Tomorrowsplit ±4°Sundaysplit ±9°Mondaysplit ±5°Tuesdaysplit ±5°Wednesdaysplit ±8°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
68°
Rain
Today 68°·Low 52°·Rain 45%
AmericanNOAA GFS
76°
Light drizzle
Today 76°·Low 51°·Rain 45%
EuropeanECMWF
69°
Drizzle
Today 69°·Low 55°·Rain 91%
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Bozeman weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Bozeman weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Bozeman swings 70°F across the year, from 82°F highs in July to 12°F lows in January, and June is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 20 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
82°F average high
Coldest month
January
12°F average low
Wettest month
June
20 in a year
Below freezing
6 months
January, February, March, April, November and December
Comfortable
2 months
May and September
Residents
43,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Bozeman and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Bozeman hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Bozeman 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Rain
71° 53°
±7°
Tomorrow
Light rain
57° 51°
±4°
Sun
Light drizzle
65° 48°
±9°
Mon
Clear
72° 48°
±5°
Tue
Cloudy
73° 51°
±5°
Wed
Cloudy
76° 53°
±8°
Thu
Mostly clear
79° 52°
±7°
Fri
Partly cloudy
78° 54°
±7°
Sat
Light drizzle
70° 53°
±7°
Sun
Light drizzle
63° 47°
±14°
Mon
Light drizzle
67° 46°
±23°
Tue
Cloudy
71° 51°
±13°
Wed
Drizzle
75° 52°
±7°
Thu
Fog
55° 43°
models agree

Bozeman, Montana (MT) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 82°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 12°F), with roughly 20 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Bozeman right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Bozeman climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
31°
12°
Feb
34°
14°
Mar
40°
19°
Apr
51°
26°
May
61°
38°
Jun
69°
46°
Jul
82°
54°
Aug
79°
53°
Sep
71°
46°
Oct
57°
35°
Nov
42°
24°
Dec
40°
24°

Which forecast is most accurate in Bozeman?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
87±1.3°F94±1.8 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
79
/100rank #2
80±2.0°F81±5.9 mph7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±7°68° to 76°±46%45% to 91% chance
Tomorrow±4°55° to 59°±41%59% to 100% chance
Sun±9°61° to 69°±12%27% to 39% chance
Mon±5°70° to 75°±1%0% to 1% chance
Tue±5°71° to 76°±3%0% to 3% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Bozeman

today, local time
Sunrise
07:06
Sunset
19:29
Daylight
12h 23m

Common questions

What's the weather in Bozeman today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Bozeman today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Bozeman today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Bozeman and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Bozeman?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Bozeman (CheckWeather Score 92/100), ahead of the American at 79. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Bozeman?
July is typically the warmest month in Bozeman, with average highs around 82°F.
How cold does Bozeman get?
The coldest month in Bozeman is January, when overnight lows average about 12°F.
How much rain does Bozeman get?
Bozeman sees roughly 20 in of precipitation a year, with June usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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