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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Burlington weather

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Showers,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 92° in Burlington today. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 82°, with a 69% chance of rain.

92°72°
82°71°
85°68°
86°69°
76°66°
66°61°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±6°Sundaymodels agreeMondaysplit ±8°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
92°
Showers
Today 92°·Low 72°·Rain 36%
AmericanNOAA GFS
90°
Cloudy
Today 90°·Low 70°·Rain 36%
EuropeanECMWF
94°
Thunderstorm
Today 94°·Low 74°·Rain 88%
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Burlington weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Burlington and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Burlington hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Burlington 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Showers
92° 72°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
82° 71°
±6°
Sun
Partly cloudy
85° 68°
models agree
Mon
Thunderstorm
86° 69°
±8°
Tue
Light rain
76° 66°
models agree
Wed
Light rain
66° 61°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
71° 59°
±5°
Fri
Light drizzle
73° 59°
±8°
Sat
Light drizzle
73° 56°
±6°
Sun
Cloudy
75° 54°
±6°
Mon
Light drizzle
76° 56°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
77° 60°
±9°
Wed
Heavy drizzle
81° 66°
models agree
Thu
Mostly clear
76° 58°
±12°

Burlington is a town of about 52,000 people in North Carolina (NC), sitting at 36.1°N in a temperate climate zone. NWS, American, European each forecast Burlington with their own physics, so we line all three up and flag where they disagree. Nearby towns include Graham, Elon, Gibsonville.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Which forecast is most accurate in Burlington?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
87
/100rank #1
91±0.9°F97±0.9 mph7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
63
/100rank #2
87±1.3°F94±1.7 mph1352% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°90° to 94°±52%36% to 88% chance
Tomorrow±6°80° to 86°±58%11% to 69% chance
Sun±3°84° to 87°±37%8% to 45% chance
Mon±8°82° to 90°±5%67% to 72% chance
Tue±4°74° to 78°±7%65% to 72% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Burlington

today, local time
Sunrise
07:02
Sunset
19:20
Daylight
12h 18m

Common questions

What's the weather in Burlington today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Burlington today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Burlington today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Burlington and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Burlington?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Burlington (CheckWeather Score 87/100), ahead of the American at 63. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.

Nearby

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