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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Dayton weather

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Showers,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 77° in Dayton today. Tomorrow looks showers around 84°, with a 57% chance of rain.

77°68°
84°63°
84°68°
68°61°
70°59°
67°59°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaysplit ±5°Mondaysplit ±5°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±5°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
79°
Showers
Today 79°·Low 69°·Rain 45%
AmericanNOAA GFS
77°
Cloudy
Today 77°·Low 67°·Rain 45%
EuropeanECMWF
77°
Light drizzle
Today 77°·Low 68°·Rain 75%
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Dayton weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Dayton weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Dayton swings 57°F across the year, from 84°F highs in July to 27°F lows in January, and April is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 43 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
84°F average high
Coldest month
January
27°F average low
Wettest month
April
43 in a year
Below freezing
2 months
January and February
Comfortable
2 months
May and October
Residents
136,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Dayton and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Dayton hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Dayton 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Showers
77° 68°
models agree
Tomorrow
Showers
84° 63°
models agree
Sun
Thunderstorm
84° 68°
±5°
Mon
Drizzle
68° 61°
±5°
Tue
Cloudy
70° 59°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
67° 59°
±5°
Thu
Cloudy
67° 58°
±9°
Fri
Light drizzle
70° 58°
models agree
Sat
Mostly clear
72° 55°
±5°
Sun
Mostly clear
74° 53°
±10°
Mon
Cloudy
75° 56°
±12°
Tue
Showers
68° 55°
±5°
Wed
Light drizzle
63° 49°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
67° 49°
±5°

Dayton, Ohio (OH) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 84°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 27°F), with roughly 43 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Dayton right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Dayton climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
40°
27°
Feb
50°
30°
Mar
54°
34°
Apr
64°
44°
May
74°
55°
Jun
81°
62°
Jul
84°
66°
Aug
83°
64°
Sep
79°
59°
Oct
67°
48°
Nov
54°
38°
Dec
45°
32°

Which forecast is most accurate in Dayton?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
97
/100rank #1
95±0.5°F97±0.8 mph100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
71
/100rank #2
81±1.9°F95±1.6 mph4268% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°77° to 79°±30%45% to 75% chance
Tomorrow±3°83° to 85°±32%25% to 57% chance
Sun±5°82° to 87°±16%49% to 65% chance
Mon±5°66° to 71°models agree49% to 49% chance
Tue±1°69° to 70°±12%34% to 46% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Dayton

today, local time
Sunrise
07:20
Sunset
19:40
Daylight
12h 20m

Common questions

What's the weather in Dayton today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Dayton today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Dayton today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Dayton and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Dayton?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Dayton (CheckWeather Score 97/100), ahead of the American at 71. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Dayton?
July is typically the warmest month in Dayton, with average highs around 84°F.
How cold does Dayton get?
The coldest month in Dayton is January, when overnight lows average about 27°F.
How much rain does Dayton get?
Dayton sees roughly 43 in of precipitation a year, with April usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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