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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 0°F

Durham weather

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Showers,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 92° in Durham today. Tomorrow looks light rain around 83°, with a 73% chance of rain.

92°73°
83°72°
87°69°
87°71°
79°67°
67°62°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±8°Sundaysplit ±5°Mondaysplit ±8°Tuesdaysplit ±9°Wednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
92°
Showers
Today 92°·Low 73°·Rain 37%
AmericanNOAA GFS
92°
Cloudy
Today 92°·Low 73°·Rain 37%
EuropeanECMWF
92°
Showers
Today 92°·Low 73°·Rain 94%
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Durham weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Durham…

Durham weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Durham swings 54°F across the year, from 90°F highs in July to 36°F lows in January, and September is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 47 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
90°F average high
Coldest month
January
36°F average low
Wettest month
September
47 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
March, April, May and October
Residents
258,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Durham and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Durham hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Durham 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Showers
92° 73°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light rain
83° 72°
±8°
Sun
Light drizzle
87° 69°
±5°
Mon
Light rain
87° 71°
±8°
Tue
Light rain
79° 67°
±9°
Wed
Heavy drizzle
67° 62°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
74° 61°
±5°
Fri
Light drizzle
72° 61°
±5°
Sat
Light drizzle
74° 58°
±7°
Sun
Cloudy
76° 57°
±4°
Mon
Light drizzle
76° 58°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
77° 61°
±9°
Wed
Drizzle
83° 66°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
76° 62°
±10°

Durham, North Carolina (NC) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 90°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 36°F), with roughly 47 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Durham right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Durham climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
54°
36°
Feb
59°
40°
Mar
64°
43°
Apr
73°
51°
May
78°
58°
Jun
86°
65°
Jul
90°
71°
Aug
87°
69°
Sep
81°
63°
Oct
72°
53°
Nov
63°
44°
Dec
54°
37°

Which forecast is most accurate in Durham?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
91
/100rank #1
94±0.6°F97±0.8 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
66
/100rank #2
86±1.4°F94±1.8 mph2458% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Todaymodels agree92° to 92°±57%37% to 94% chance
Tomorrow±8°80° to 88°±64%9% to 73% chance
Sun±5°85° to 90°±16%4% to 20% chance
Mon±8°83° to 91°±3%59% to 62% chance
Tue±9°75° to 85°±2%63% to 65% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Durham

today, local time
Sunrise
07:00
Sunset
19:18
Daylight
12h 18m

Common questions

What's the weather in Durham today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Durham today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Durham today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Durham and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Durham?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Durham (CheckWeather Score 91/100), ahead of the American at 66. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Durham?
July is typically the warmest month in Durham, with average highs around 90°F.
How cold does Durham get?
The coldest month in Durham is January, when overnight lows average about 36°F.
How much rain does Durham get?
Durham sees roughly 47 in of precipitation a year, with September usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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