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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Elgin weather

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Heavy drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 71° in Elgin today. Tomorrow looks rain around 76°, with a 92% chance of rain.

71°62°
76°63°
70°62°
62°57°
61°53°
62°53°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±5°Sundaymodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±4°Wednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
71°
Heavy drizzle
Today 71°·Low 62°·Rain 44%
AmericanNOAA GFS
70°
Cloudy
Today 70°·Low 62°·Rain 44%
EuropeanECMWF
72°
Light rain
Today 72°·Low 63°·Rain 68%
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Elgin weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Elgin weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Elgin swings 62°F across the year, from 82°F highs in June to 20°F lows in January, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 41 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
June
82°F average high
Coldest month
January
20°F average low
Wettest month
July
41 in a year
Below freezing
4 months
January, February, March and December
Comfortable
3 months
May, September and October
Residents
112,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Elgin and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Elgin hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Elgin 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Heavy drizzle
71° 62°
models agree
Tomorrow
Rain
76° 63°
±5°
Sun
Rain
70° 62°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
62° 57°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
61° 53°
±4°
Wed
Cloudy
62° 53°
models agree
Thu
Partly cloudy
64° 53°
±4°
Fri
Partly cloudy
67° 56°
models agree
Sat
Partly cloudy
70° 54°
±7°
Sun
Cloudy
71° 53°
±7°
Mon
Drizzle
67° 52°
±8°
Tue
Drizzle
57° 51°
±17°
Wed
Cloudy
60° 47°
models agree
Thu
Partly cloudy
68° 46°
±5°

Elgin, Illinois (IL) is at its warmest in Jun (average highs near 82°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 20°F), with roughly 41 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Elgin right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Elgin climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
32°
20°
Feb
43°
25°
Mar
48°
31°
Apr
59°
40°
May
72°
51°
Jun
82°
61°
Jul
82°
64°
Aug
82°
64°
Sep
77°
59°
Oct
64°
47°
Nov
49°
36°
Dec
39°
28°

Which forecast is most accurate in Elgin?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
96
/100rank #1
95±0.5°F98±0.7 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
79
/100rank #2
87±1.3°F96±1.3 mph5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°70° to 72°±24%44% to 68% chance
Tomorrow±5°74° to 79°±23%69% to 92% chance
Sunmodels agree69° to 70°±22%69% to 91% chance
Mon±1°62° to 63°±2%32% to 34% chance
Tue±4°60° to 64°±20%11% to 31% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Elgin

today, local time
Sunrise
06:36
Sunset
18:57
Daylight
12h 21m

Common questions

What's the weather in Elgin today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Elgin today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Elgin today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Elgin and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Elgin?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Elgin (CheckWeather Score 96/100), ahead of the American at 79. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Elgin?
June is typically the warmest month in Elgin, with average highs around 82°F.
How cold does Elgin get?
The coldest month in Elgin is January, when overnight lows average about 20°F.
How much rain does Elgin get?
Elgin sees roughly 41 in of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

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