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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Fayetteville weather

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Clear,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 95° in Fayetteville today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 94°, with a 0% chance of rain.

95°75°
94°75°
94°74°
85°69°
78°64°
81°58°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaymodels agreeMondaysplit ±10°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±13°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
95°
Clear
Today 95°·Low 75°·Rain 1%
AmericanNOAA GFS
96°
Mostly clear
Today 96°·Low 75°·Rain 1%
EuropeanECMWF
93°
Clear
Today 93°·Low 76°·Rain 14%
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Fayetteville weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Fayetteville weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Fayetteville swings 61°F across the year, from 90°F highs in August to 29°F lows in January, and May is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 42 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
August
90°F average high
Coldest month
January
29°F average low
Wettest month
May
42 in a year
Below freezing
1 month
January
Comfortable
4 months
March, April, October and November
Residents
83,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Fayetteville and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Fayetteville hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Fayetteville 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
95° 75°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
94° 75°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
94° 74°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
85° 69°
±10°
Tue
Partly cloudy
78° 64°
models agree
Wed
Mostly clear
81° 58°
±13°
Thu
Partly cloudy
83° 58°
±10°
Fri
Partly cloudy
79° 61°
±4°
Sat
Cloudy
82° 60°
±7°
Sun
Heavy drizzle
84° 63°
±12°
Mon
Heavy drizzle
78° 61°
±18°
Tue
Partly cloudy
77° 54°
±7°
Wed
Partly cloudy
80° 55°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
84° 59°
models agree

Fayetteville, Arkansas (AR) is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 90°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 29°F), with roughly 42 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Fayetteville right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Fayetteville climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
47°
29°
Feb
58°
38°
Mar
62°
42°
Apr
69°
49°
May
78°
59°
Jun
87°
67°
Jul
89°
70°
Aug
90°
71°
Sep
83°
63°
Oct
75°
55°
Nov
61°
43°
Dec
52°
37°

Which forecast is most accurate in Fayetteville?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
91
/100rank #1
94±0.6°F98±0.5 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
81
/100rank #2
86±1.4°F95±1.7 mph6581% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°93° to 96°±13%1% to 14% chance
Tomorrow±3°92° to 95°models agree0% to 0% chance
Sun±4°92° to 96°±4%31% to 35% chance
Mon±10°81° to 91°±4%50% to 54% chance
Tue±4°76° to 79°±6%2% to 8% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Fayetteville

today, local time
Sunrise
07:01
Sunset
19:19
Daylight
12h 18m

Common questions

What's the weather in Fayetteville today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Fayetteville today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Fayetteville today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Fayetteville and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Fayetteville?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Fayetteville (CheckWeather Score 91/100), ahead of the American at 81. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Fayetteville?
August is typically the warmest month in Fayetteville, with average highs around 90°F.
How cold does Fayetteville get?
The coldest month in Fayetteville is January, when overnight lows average about 29°F.
How much rain does Fayetteville get?
Fayetteville sees roughly 42 in of precipitation a year, with May usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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