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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Fresno weather

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Clear,warmer tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 84° in Fresno today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 90°, with a 0% chance of rain.

84°59°
90°61°
92°64°
90°67°
92°66°
98°70°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaysplit ±5°Mondaysplit ±5°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±5°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
85°
Clear
Today 85°·Low 59°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
84°
Clear
Today 84°·Low 57°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
85°
Clear
Today 85°·Low 60°·Rain 0%
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Fresno weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Fresno weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Fresno swings 68°F across the year, from 107°F highs in July to 39°F lows in February, and March is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 21 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
107°F average high
Coldest month
February
39°F average low
Wettest month
March
21 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
3 months
April, November and December
Residents
542,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Fresno and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Fresno in 3D: the weather on the streets, hour by hour

Rain, sun and real shadows drawn on a 3D map of Fresno, 48 hours ahead. Drag the timeline, pick what you are doing or where you are going, and read the verdict for that hour.Full screen ↗

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Fresno hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Fresno 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
84° 59°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
90° 61°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
92° 64°
±5°
Mon
Cloudy
90° 67°
±5°
Tue
Clear
92° 66°
models agree
Wed
Clear
98° 70°
±5°
Thu
Mostly clear
100° 72°
models agree
Fri
Mostly clear
96° 72°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
91° 70°
±9°
Sun
Mostly clear
91° 69°
±10°
Mon
Mostly clear
91° 69°
±12°
Tue
Mostly clear
94° 71°
±7°
Wed
Clear
91° 69°
±16°
Thu
Clear
86° 66°
±19°

Fresno, California (CA) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 107°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 39°F), with roughly 21 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Fresno right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Fresno climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
57°
40°
Feb
59°
39°
Mar
62°
44°
Apr
73°
49°
May
84°
57°
Jun
94°
66°
Jul
107°
74°
Aug
100°
71°
Sep
93°
65°
Oct
84°
56°
Nov
66°
44°
Dec
60°
42°

Which forecast is most accurate in Fresno?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
97
/100rank #1
93±0.7°F99±0.5 mph100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
93
/100rank #2
93±0.7°F91±2.7 mph9597% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°84° to 85°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±1°90° to 91°models agree0% to 0% chance
Sun±5°89° to 95°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±5°88° to 93°±3%1% to 4% chance
Tue±2°91° to 93°±1%1% to 2% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Fresno

today, local time
Sunrise
06:43
Sunset
19:01
Daylight
12h 18m

Common questions

What's the weather in Fresno today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Fresno today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Fresno today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Fresno and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Fresno?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Fresno (CheckWeather Score 97/100), ahead of the American at 93. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Fresno?
July is typically the warmest month in Fresno, with average highs around 107°F.
How cold does Fresno get?
The coldest month in Fresno is February, when overnight lows average about 39°F.
How much rain does Fresno get?
Fresno sees roughly 21 in of precipitation a year, with March usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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