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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Harrisburg weather

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Partly cloudy,cooler tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 79° in Harrisburg today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 74°, with a 7% chance of rain.

79°65°
74°57°
76°64°
68°57°
60°54°
60°52°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaysplit ±9°Mondaysplit ±6°Tuesdaysplit ±6°Wednesdaysplit ±5°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
79°
Partly cloudy
Today 79°·Low 64°·Rain 4%
AmericanNOAA GFS
80°
Cloudy
Today 80°·Low 64°·Rain 4%
EuropeanECMWF
80°
Light drizzle
Today 80°·Low 66°·Rain 39%
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Harrisburg weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Harrisburg weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Harrisburg swings 59°F across the year, from 88°F highs in July to 29°F lows in February, and April is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 42 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
88°F average high
Coldest month
February
29°F average low
Wettest month
April
42 in a year
Below freezing
2 months
January and February
Comfortable
3 months
May, September and October
Residents
50,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Harrisburg and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Harrisburg hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Harrisburg 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Partly cloudy
79° 65°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
74° 57°
models agree
Sun
Rain
76° 64°
±9°
Mon
Drizzle
68° 57°
±6°
Tue
Light rain
60° 54°
±6°
Wed
Drizzle
60° 52°
±5°
Thu
Light drizzle
62° 54°
±5°
Fri
Drizzle
68° 53°
models agree
Sat
Partly cloudy
70° 50°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
70° 52°
±6°
Mon
Light drizzle
72° 55°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
74° 53°
models agree
Wed
Showers
72° 56°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
68° 50°
±5°

Harrisburg, Pennsylvania (PA) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 88°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 29°F), with roughly 42 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Harrisburg right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Harrisburg climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
44°
30°
Feb
49°
29°
Mar
53°
34°
Apr
66°
44°
May
73°
52°
Jun
83°
61°
Jul
88°
68°
Aug
84°
65°
Sep
76°
59°
Oct
67°
48°
Nov
54°
38°
Dec
45°
32°

Which forecast is most accurate in Harrisburg?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
93±0.7°F98±0.7 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
69
/100rank #2
81±1.9°F95±1.4 mph3665% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°79° to 80°±35%4% to 39% chance
Tomorrow±2°73° to 75°±7%0% to 7% chance
Sun±9°73° to 81°±6%84% to 90% chance
Mon±6°65° to 71°±9%45% to 54% chance
Tue±6°56° to 62°±3%47% to 50% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Harrisburg

today, local time
Sunrise
06:51
Sunset
19:11
Daylight
12h 20m

Common questions

What's the weather in Harrisburg today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Harrisburg today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Harrisburg today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Harrisburg and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Harrisburg?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Harrisburg (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the American at 69. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Harrisburg?
July is typically the warmest month in Harrisburg, with average highs around 88°F.
How cold does Harrisburg get?
The coldest month in Harrisburg is February, when overnight lows average about 29°F.
How much rain does Harrisburg get?
Harrisburg sees roughly 42 in of precipitation a year, with April usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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