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CheckWeather USHarrisonburg
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Harrisonburg weather

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Drizzle,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 82° in Harrisonburg today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 78°, with a 14% chance of rain.

82°68°
78°63°
83°66°
69°60°
61°57°
57°53°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±5°Sundaymodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±5°Wednesdaysplit ±5°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
82°
Drizzle
Today 82°·Low 69°·Rain 14%
AmericanNOAA GFS
81°
Fog
Today 81°·Low 67°·Rain 14%
EuropeanECMWF
83°
Drizzle
Today 83°·Low 69°·Rain 88%
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Harrisonburg weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Harrisonburg and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Harrisonburg hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Harrisonburg 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
82° 68°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
78° 63°
±5°
Sun
Drizzle
83° 66°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
69° 60°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
61° 57°
±5°
Wed
Heavy drizzle
57° 53°
±5°
Thu
Drizzle
63° 53°
models agree
Fri
Drizzle
67° 54°
±5°
Sat
Partly cloudy
68° 49°
±9°
Sun
Mostly clear
71° 49°
±6°
Mon
Light drizzle
72° 51°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
72° 55°
±6°
Wed
Showers
77° 55°
models agree
Thu
Clear
71° 48°
±9°

Harrisonburg is a town of about 53,000 people in Virginia (VA), sitting at 38.4°N in a temperate climate zone. NWS, American, European each forecast Harrisonburg with their own physics, so we line all three up and flag where they disagree. Nearby towns include Bridgewater, Staunton, Fishersville.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Which forecast is most accurate in Harrisonburg?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
88
/100rank #1
88±1.2°F95±1.7 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
69
/100rank #2
82±1.8°F93±2.1 mph3665% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°81° to 83°±74%14% to 88% chance
Tomorrow±5°76° to 80°±8%6% to 14% chance
Sun±3°82° to 85°±48%40% to 88% chance
Mon±3°67° to 70°±30%25% to 55% chance
Tue±5°59° to 64°±4%65% to 69% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Harrisonburg

today, local time
Sunrise
06:59
Sunset
19:18
Daylight
12h 19m

Common questions

What's the weather in Harrisonburg today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Harrisonburg today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Harrisonburg today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Harrisonburg and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Harrisonburg?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Harrisonburg (CheckWeather Score 88/100), ahead of the American at 69. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.

Nearby

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