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Kailua weather

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Kailua weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Kailua weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Kailua swings 15°F across the year, from 83°F highs in August to 68°F lows in January, and April is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 52 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
August
83°F average high
Coldest month
January
68°F average low
Wettest month
April
52 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
2 months
February and March
Residents
39,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Kailua and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Kailua hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Kailua 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split

Kailua, Hawaii (HI) is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 83°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 68°F), with roughly 52 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Kailua right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Kailua climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
79°
68°
Feb
77°
69°
Mar
78°
69°
Apr
78°
70°
May
79°
71°
Jun
80°
73°
Jul
82°
74°
Aug
83°
75°
Sep
83°
75°
Oct
83°
74°
Nov
80°
73°
Dec
79°
70°

Which forecast is most accurate in Kailua?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
74
/100rank #1
64±3.6°F86±4.3 mph7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
70
/100rank #2
77±2.3°F82±5.7 mph5374% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Common questions

What's the weather in Kailua today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Kailua today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Kailua today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Kailua and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Kailua?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Kailua (CheckWeather Score 74/100), ahead of the American at 70. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Kailua?
August is typically the warmest month in Kailua, with average highs around 83°F.
How cold does Kailua get?
The coldest month in Kailua is January, when overnight lows average about 68°F.
How much rain does Kailua get?
Kailua sees roughly 52 in of precipitation a year, with April usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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